{"F": {"ts_code": "002430.SZ", "name": "杭氧股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学制品", "sw3": "其他化学制品", "ind": "化学制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20100610", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 27.29, "pe_ttm": 25.8484, "pb": 2.6477, "dv_ttm": 1.4657, "total_mv": 2669943.6213, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [22.7, 24.6, 25.5, 22.9, 20.9, 21.0], "rev_series": [100.2, 118.8, 128.0, 133.1, 137.2, 150.8], "np_series": [8.4, 11.9, 12.1, 12.2, 9.2, 9.5], "roe_series": [13.9, 17.5, 15.6, 14.2, 10.2, 9.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 164.5, "np_ttm": 10.3, "ocf_ttm": 21.9, "fcf_ttm": 10.5, "fcf_yield": 3.9, "ocf_yield": 8.2, "gm_median": 22.9, "gm_std": 1.9, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": 2.8, "npm_median": 9.6, "roe_median": 14.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 49.3, "fix_assets": 121.6, "goodwill_ratio": 1.2, "pb_calc": 2.62, "capex_dep": 1.0, "interest_debt": 70.9, "debt_ebitda": 2.4, "debt_ratio": 52.9, "debt_mv": 26.6, "payout": 41.2, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 5.6, "np_cagr3": -7.8, "rev_yoy": 18.6, "np_yoy": 17.5, "np_vol": 21.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 81.0, "earn_yield": 3.9, "consensus_n": 12, "fwd_pe": 23.1, "fwd_pe2": 19.8, "fwd_g1": 12.0, "fwd_g2": 16.0, "peg": 1.44, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["气体销售", 33.0], ["空分设备", 14.0], ["石化产品", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 40.1, "ret_prev2_year": -23.9, "ret_ytd": -7.7, "ret_pivot": 70.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 13.8, "ret_60": -1.6, "ret_120": -13.0, "ret_250": 15.9, "mdd_250": -34.2, "vol_250": 48.7, "pos_52w": 79.9}, "S": {"duration": 48, "pricing": 53, "hard": 79, "bondness": 45}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 25.8 倍、股息率 1.5%、毛利率近 5 年中位 22.9%、固定资产占比 49%、有息负债/EBITDA 2.4 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 49%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 22.9%,稳定度 92%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.9%(经营现金流/市值 8.2%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 22.9%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 2.8 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 49%,资本开支/折旧 1.00 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 25.8 倍 粗算,约 81%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 16%,最大回撤 -34%,年化波动 49%,现价在 52 周高点的 80%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 14% / -2% / -13%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学制品」188 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 22.3% / 固定资产占比 34% / 分红率 41%。", "杭氧股份:PE 比行业中位低 10.1倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 0.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 14.8个百分点。"]}}