{"F": {"ts_code": "002429.SZ", "name": "兆驰股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "家用电器", "sw2": "黑色家电", "sw3": "彩电", "ind": "黑色家电", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20100610", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 7.85, "pe_ttm": 34.4007, "pb": 2.1306, "dv_ttm": 1.1083, "total_mv": 3553648.3765, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [15.2, 15.8, 17.0, 18.8, 17.2, 18.1], "rev_series": [201.9, 225.4, 150.3, 171.7, 203.3, 178.1], "np_series": [17.6, 3.3, 11.5, 15.9, 16.0, 13.0], "roe_series": [16.7, 2.8, 8.8, 11.2, 10.4, 8.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 185.0, "np_ttm": 10.3, "ocf_ttm": 16.8, "fcf_ttm": 5.5, "fcf_yield": 1.6, "ocf_yield": 4.7, "gm_median": 17.2, "gm_std": 1.0, "gm_stab": 0.94, "gm_chg_2022": 1.8, "npm_median": 8.2, "roe_median": 8.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 25.3, "fix_assets": 70.4, "goodwill_ratio": 2.0, "pb_calc": 2.13, "capex_dep": 1.3, "interest_debt": 46.6, "debt_ebitda": 1.9, "debt_ratio": 37.9, "debt_mv": 13.1, "payout": 30.3, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 5.8, "np_cagr3": 4.4, "rev_yoy": 8.2, "np_yoy": -40.9, "np_vol": 110.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 85.0, "earn_yield": 2.9, "consensus_n": 10, "fwd_pe": 23.2, "fwd_pe2": 17.4, "fwd_g1": 49.0, "fwd_g2": 33.0, "peg": 0.7, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["视听及通信类电子产品", 34.0], ["多媒体视听产品及运营服务", 34.0], ["LED系列", 16.0], ["LED产业链", 16.0]], "ret_prev_year": 31.3, "ret_prev2_year": 5.8, "ret_ytd": 7.1, "ret_pivot": 84.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -3.7, "ret_60": -26.4, "ret_120": -33.8, "ret_250": 46.6, "mdd_250": -47.1, "vol_250": 63.9, "pos_52w": 58.4}, "S": {"duration": 58, "pricing": 50, "hard": 40, "bondness": 37}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 34.4 倍、股息率 1.1%、毛利率近 5 年中位 17.2%、固定资产占比 25%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.9 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 25%,毛利率近 5 年中位 17.2%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.6%(经营现金流/市值 4.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 17.2%,稳定度 94%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.8 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 25%,资本开支/折旧 1.30 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 34.4 倍 粗算,约 85%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 47%,最大回撤 -47%,年化波动 64%,现价在 52 周高点的 58%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -4% / -26% / -34%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「黑色家电」9 家中位:PE 38.9 / 股息率 0.9% / 毛利率 16.7% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 51%。", "兆驰股份:PE 比行业中位低 4.5倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 0.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 7.5个百分点。"]}}