{"F": {"ts_code": "002428.SZ", "name": "云南锗业", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "有色金属", "sw2": "小金属", "sw3": "其他小金属", "ind": "小金属", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20100608", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 87.09, "pe_ttm": 787.0938, "pb": 37.0592, "dv_ttm": 0.0115, "total_mv": 5688022.08, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [17.8, 19.6, 11.5, 18.9, 28.5, 21.1], "rev_series": [6.7, 5.6, 5.4, 6.7, 7.7, 10.7], "np_series": [0.2, 0.1, -0.6, 0.1, 0.5, 0.2], "roe_series": [1.6, 1.0, -4.3, 0.5, 3.7, 1.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 12.7, "np_ttm": 0.7, "ocf_ttm": -2.1, "fcf_ttm": -4.0, "fcf_yield": -0.7, "ocf_yield": -0.4, "gm_median": 19.6, "gm_std": 5.4, "gm_stab": 0.72, "gm_chg_2022": -6.3, "npm_median": 2.3, "roe_median": 1.0, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 27.5, "fix_assets": 10.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 37.06, "capex_dep": 2.04, "interest_debt": 11.5, "debt_ebitda": 4.4, "debt_ratio": 59.1, "debt_mv": 2.0, "payout": 37.5, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 25.7, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 38.2, "np_yoy": 235.3, "np_vol": 387.6, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 99.0, "earn_yield": 0.1, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 209.0, "fwd_pe2": 91.7, "fwd_g1": 277.0, "fwd_g2": 128.0, "peg": 1.63, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 39.0], ["材料级锗产品", 18.0], ["材料系锗产品", 18.0], ["化合物半导体材料", 8.0]], "ret_prev_year": 68.3, "ret_prev2_year": 53.7, "ret_ytd": 174.4, "ret_pivot": 676.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -13.0, "ret_60": -1.3, "ret_120": 100.9, "ret_250": 211.3, "mdd_250": -52.5, "vol_250": 79.5, "pos_52w": 66.9}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 70, "hard": 44, "bondness": 26}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["商品定价", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 787.1 倍、股息率 0.0%、毛利率近 5 年中位 19.6%、固定资产占比 28%、有息负债/EBITDA 4.4 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 19.6%),硬资产占比 28%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.7%(经营现金流/市值 -0.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 19.6%,稳定度 72%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.3 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 28%,资本开支/折旧 2.04 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 787.1 倍 粗算,约 99%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 211%,最大回撤 -52%,年化波动 80%,现价在 52 周高点的 67%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -13% / -1% / 101%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「小金属」29 家中位:PE 36.9 / 股息率 0.6% / 毛利率 18.3% / 固定资产占比 22% / 分红率 35%。", "云南锗业:PE 比行业中位高 750.2倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 1.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 5.8个百分点。"]}}