{"F": {"ts_code": "002427.SZ", "name": "尤夫股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学纤维", "sw3": "涤纶", "ind": "化学纤维", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20100608", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 4.92, "pe_ttm": 142.2766, "pb": 4.9746, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 484832.9376, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [13.7, 7.1, -1.3, 4.5, 7.2, 12.8], "rev_series": [24.5, 29.0, 24.5, 25.8, 22.9, 22.4], "np_series": [-7.5, -14.1, 5.2, -0.9, -0.3, 0.4], "roe_series": [-174.1, null, null, -9.3, -2.9, 4.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 21.8, "np_ttm": 0.3, "ocf_ttm": -0.7, "fcf_ttm": -0.9, "fcf_yield": -1.8, "ocf_yield": -1.4, "gm_median": 7.1, "gm_std": 4.6, "gm_stab": 0.36, "gm_chg_2022": -15.0, "npm_median": -1.2, "roe_median": -2.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 35.7, "fix_assets": 8.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.97, "capex_dep": 0.23, "interest_debt": 7.5, "debt_ebitda": 3.8, "debt_ratio": 58.9, "debt_mv": 15.6, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -2.9, "np_cagr3": -58.1, "rev_yoy": -4.7, "np_yoy": -33.2, "np_vol": 135.4, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 96.0, "earn_yield": 0.7, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 45.0], ["涤纶工业丝", 33.0], ["特种纺织品", 8.0], ["特种工业用布", 8.0]], "ret_prev_year": 92.8, "ret_prev2_year": -31.1, "ret_ytd": -26.7, "ret_pivot": 70.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 13.6, "ret_60": 12.1, "ret_120": -29.6, "ret_250": -37.6, "mdd_250": -51.3, "vol_250": 49.4, "pos_52w": 61.6}, "S": {"duration": 97, "pricing": 20, "hard": 57, "bondness": 31}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 36%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 7.1%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -15.0 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 3.8 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 36%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 7.1%,稳定度 36%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.8%(经营现金流/市值 -1.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 7.1%,稳定度 36%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -15.0 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 36%,资本开支/折旧 0.23 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 142.3 倍 粗算,约 96%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -38%,最大回撤 -51%,年化波动 49%,现价在 52 周高点的 62%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 14% / 12% / -30%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学纤维」27 家中位:PE 32.4 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 15.3% / 固定资产占比 46% / 分红率 35%。", "尤夫股份:PE 比行业中位高 109.9倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 8.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 9.9个百分点。"]}}