{"F": {"ts_code": "002426.SZ", "name": "胜利精密", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "消费电子", "sw3": "消费电子零部件及组装", "ind": "消费电子", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20100608", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 2.67, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 5.957, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 908501.142, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [14.6, 12.1, 8.5, 4.7, 10.2, 10.4], "rev_series": [96.0, 50.0, 41.2, 34.5, 33.2, 35.5], "np_series": [3.9, 0.4, -2.5, -9.3, -7.4, -7.1], "roe_series": [8.9, 0.8, -5.6, -24.2, -25.2, -34.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 36.3, "np_ttm": -8.7, "ocf_ttm": 1.7, "fcf_ttm": 1.2, "fcf_yield": 1.3, "ocf_yield": 1.9, "gm_median": 10.2, "gm_std": 2.5, "gm_stab": 0.75, "gm_chg_2022": -6.1, "npm_median": -20.0, "roe_median": -24.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 36.6, "fix_assets": 21.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 5.96, "capex_dep": 0.21, "interest_debt": 19.0, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 73.5, "debt_mv": 21.0, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -4.9, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 4.6, "np_yoy": -364.1, "np_vol": 282.6, "loss_years": 4, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 49.0], ["消费电子", 30.0], ["汽车零部件", 17.0], ["其他业务", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 42.9, "ret_prev2_year": 14.5, "ret_ytd": -30.3, "ret_pivot": 55.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -2.9, "ret_60": -21.7, "ret_120": -34.2, "ret_250": -21.0, "mdd_250": -48.4, "vol_250": 57.7, "pos_52w": 57.9}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 35, "hard": 59, "bondness": 23}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 37%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 10.2%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.1 个百分点;资产负债率 74%,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 37%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 10.2%,稳定度 75%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.3%(经营现金流/市值 1.9%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 10.2%,稳定度 75%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.1 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 37%,资本开支/折旧 0.21 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -21%,最大回撤 -48%,年化波动 58%,现价在 52 周高点的 58%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -3% / -22% / -34%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「消费电子」100 家中位:PE 46.5 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 20.3% / 固定资产占比 25% / 分红率 44%。", "胜利精密:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 10.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 11.8个百分点。"]}}