{"F": {"ts_code": "002425.SZ", "name": "凯撒文化", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "传媒", "sw2": "游戏Ⅱ", "sw3": "游戏Ⅲ", "ind": "游戏Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20100608", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 3.41, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 1.3195, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 326222.765, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [67.8, 55.8, 9.5, 4.6, -1.0, 5.0], "rev_series": [5.9, 9.3, 6.2, 4.3, 4.5, 5.5], "np_series": [1.2, 0.8, -6.9, -7.9, -5.3, -5.6], "roe_series": [3.0, 1.5, -14.7, -20.3, -16.2, -20.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 5.9, "np_ttm": -4.9, "ocf_ttm": 0.0, "fcf_ttm": -0.3, "fcf_yield": -0.9, "ocf_yield": 0.0, "gm_median": 5.0, "gm_std": 20.8, "gm_stab": -3.16, "gm_chg_2022": -58.3, "npm_median": -119.6, "roe_median": -16.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 0.1, "fix_assets": 0.0, "goodwill_ratio": 44.1, "pb_calc": 1.32, "capex_dep": 22.61, "interest_debt": 1.2, "debt_ebitda": 2.5, "debt_ratio": 14.5, "debt_mv": 3.8, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -4.0, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 14.5, "np_yoy": 108.5, "np_vol": 443.0, "loss_years": 4, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 35.0], ["游戏分成收入", 28.0], ["游戏分成", 28.0], ["版权运营", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 65.4, "ret_prev2_year": -52.1, "ret_ytd": -3.7, "ret_pivot": 50.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -2.0, "ret_60": 20.5, "ret_120": -2.6, "ret_250": -4.5, "mdd_250": -43.8, "vol_250": 46.4, "pos_52w": 77.9}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 6, "hard": 0, "bondness": 28}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "商誉占比高", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -4.9 亿,近 5 年亏损 4 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 14%,有息负债 1 亿,经营现金流/市值 0.0%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 0%,毛利率近 5 年中位 5.0%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.9%(经营现金流/市值 0.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 5.0%,稳定度 -316%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -58.3 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 0%,资本开支/折旧 22.61 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -4%,最大回撤 -44%,年化波动 46%,现价在 52 周高点的 78%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -2% / 20% / -3%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「游戏Ⅱ」26 家中位:PE 24.6 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 60.8% / 固定资产占比 4% / 分红率 43%。", "凯撒文化:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 55.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 3.9个百分点。"]}}