{"F": {"ts_code": "002423.SZ", "name": "中粮资本", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "非银金融", "sw2": "多元金融", "sw3": "金融控股", "ind": "多元金融", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20100603", "is_fin": true, "roles": {"fin": true, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 9.83, "pe_ttm": 18.8389, "pb": 0.9807, "dv_ttm": 1.5056, "total_mv": 2264935.8048, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [-7.3, 1.9, -3.5, -3.0, -24.3, 23.3], "rev_series": [15.7, 63.5, 45.3, 30.6, 5.6, 2.0], "np_series": [10.5, 13.7, 6.0, 10.2, 12.1, 11.3], "roe_series": [6.3, 7.7, 3.3, 5.4, 5.7, 4.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 1.3, "np_ttm": 12.0, "ocf_ttm": 230.2, "fcf_ttm": 228.8, "fcf_yield": 101.0, "ocf_yield": 101.6, "gm_median": -3.0, "gm_std": 15.2, "gm_stab": 6.06, "gm_chg_2022": 3.8, "npm_median": 48.5, "roe_median": 5.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 0.6, "fix_assets": 11.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 0.98, "capex_dep": 2.06, "interest_debt": 118.3, "debt_ebitda": 1.6, "debt_ratio": 81.4, "debt_mv": 52.2, "payout": 30.1, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -64.6, "np_cagr3": 23.8, "rev_yoy": -42.3, "np_yoy": 8.2, "np_vol": 50.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 73.0, "earn_yield": 5.3, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 18.2, "fwd_pe2": 16.9, "fwd_g1": 3.0, "fwd_g2": 7.0, "peg": 2.6, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["保险服务收入", 50.0], ["利息收入", 27.0], ["手续费及佣金收入", 19.0], ["其他业务收入", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": -11.7, "ret_prev2_year": 109.6, "ret_ytd": -14.9, "ret_pivot": 39.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 7.9, "ret_60": 16.2, "ret_120": -7.3, "ret_250": -26.0, "mdd_250": -44.1, "vol_250": 31.6, "pos_52w": 68.0}, "S": {"duration": 38, "pricing": null, "hard": null, "bondness": 44}, "label": "金融·利差生意", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["中粮资本 是多元金融。银行赚的是利差,券商保险赚的是资产端与费率,毛利率与固定资产两个轴对它没有意义。", "ROE 近 5 年中位 5.4%,PB 0.98倍,股息率 1.5%,分红率 30%。", "利率上行对银行是净息差扩张(少数受益方向);对保险是资产端浮亏、对券商是交投与融资成本。"], "加息期怎么走": "按笔记:日债/美债收益率上行期,银行股是例外的受益方向;红利型大行按'现金流红利'拿,盯息差而不盯黄金。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "金融业现金流表不适用;用盈利收益率 5.3%(1/PE)与股息率 1.5% 看。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 18.8 倍 粗算,约 73%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -26%,最大回撤 -44%,年化波动 32%,现价在 52 周高点的 68%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 8% / 16% / -7%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「多元金融」24 家中位:PE 20.1 / 股息率 1.4% / 毛利率 28.6% / 固定资产占比 1% / 分红率 31%。", "中粮资本:PE 比行业中位低 1.3倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 31.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 0.1个百分点。"]}}