{"F": {"ts_code": "002419.SZ", "name": "天虹股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "商贸零售", "sw2": "一般零售", "sw3": "百货", "ind": "一般零售", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20100601", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 4.78, "pe_ttm": 127.4763, "pb": 1.3658, "dv_ttm": 1.4693, "total_mv": 545520.6548, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [42.9, 39.2, 36.8, 38.3, 36.9, 36.7], "rev_series": [118.0, 122.7, 121.3, 120.9, 117.9, 115.6], "np_series": [2.5, 2.3, 1.2, 2.3, 0.8, 0.8], "roe_series": [3.7, 4.3, 2.9, 5.5, 1.8, 2.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 113.0, "np_ttm": 0.4, "ocf_ttm": 18.9, "fcf_ttm": 14.6, "fcf_yield": 26.8, "ocf_yield": 34.6, "gm_median": 36.9, "gm_std": 1.0, "gm_stab": 0.97, "gm_chg_2022": -6.1, "npm_median": 1.0, "roe_median": 2.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 21.6, "fix_assets": 51.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.3, "pb_calc": 1.37, "capex_dep": 1.53, "interest_debt": 110.2, "debt_ebitda": 6.4, "debt_ratio": 83.2, "debt_mv": 202.0, "payout": 91.5, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -1.6, "np_cagr3": -11.5, "rev_yoy": -4.2, "np_yoy": -26.3, "np_vol": 54.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 96.0, "earn_yield": 0.8, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 55.2, "fwd_pe2": 43.5, "fwd_g1": 131.0, "fwd_g2": 27.0, "peg": 2.04, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 43.0], ["生鲜熟类", 12.0], ["包装食品类", 11.0], ["百货零售类", 8.0]], "ret_prev_year": -4.7, "ret_prev2_year": 9.4, "ret_ytd": -12.5, "ret_pivot": 18.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 6.0, "ret_60": 5.3, "ret_120": -14.2, "ret_250": -18.4, "mdd_250": -31.2, "vol_250": 29.8, "pos_52w": 77.7}, "S": {"duration": 96, "pricing": 56, "hard": 35, "bondness": 76}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 127.5 倍、股息率 1.5%、毛利率近 5 年中位 36.9%、固定资产占比 22%、有息负债/EBITDA 6.4 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 36.9%),硬资产占比 22%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 26.8%(经营现金流/市值 34.6%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 36.9%,稳定度 97%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.1 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 22%,资本开支/折旧 1.53 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 127.5 倍 粗算,约 96%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -18%,最大回撤 -31%,年化波动 30%,现价在 52 周高点的 78%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 6% / 5% / -14%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「一般零售」60 家中位:PE 60.7 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 34.2% / 固定资产占比 15% / 分红率 51%。", "天虹股份:PE 比行业中位高 66.8倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 2.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 6.2个百分点。"]}}