{"F": {"ts_code": "002416.SZ", "name": "爱施德", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "商贸零售", "sw2": "专业连锁Ⅱ", "sw3": "专业连锁Ⅲ", "ind": "专业连锁Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20100528", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 9.53, "pe_ttm": 59.2621, "pb": 2.2375, "dv_ttm": 5.2466, "total_mv": 1181035.5554, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [3.5, 3.1, 3.2, 3.1, 4.3, 5.0], "rev_series": [640.3, 950.4, 913.0, 920.4, 657.2, 551.6], "np_series": [7.0, 9.2, 7.3, 6.6, 5.8, 3.7], "roe_series": [13.5, 16.5, 12.5, 11.0, 9.6, 6.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 605.8, "np_ttm": 2.0, "ocf_ttm": 3.1, "fcf_ttm": 2.3, "fcf_yield": 2.0, "ocf_yield": 2.6, "gm_median": 3.2, "gm_std": 0.8, "gm_stab": 0.76, "gm_chg_2022": -0.3, "npm_median": 0.9, "roe_median": 11.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 0.2, "fix_assets": 0.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.1, "pb_calc": 2.24, "capex_dep": 10.11, "interest_debt": 31.8, "debt_ebitda": 3.1, "debt_ratio": 62.4, "debt_mv": 26.9, "payout": 106.6, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -15.5, "np_cagr3": -20.0, "rev_yoy": 21.4, "np_yoy": -79.0, "np_vol": 22.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 92.0, "earn_yield": 1.7, "consensus_n": 7, "fwd_pe": 28.3, "fwd_pe2": 21.3, "fwd_g1": 110.0, "fwd_g2": 33.0, "peg": 0.86, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["通信产品", 88.0], ["非通信产品", 11.0], ["其他业务收入", 0.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": -20.9, "ret_prev2_year": 93.5, "ret_ytd": -21.1, "ret_pivot": 15.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -0.6, "ret_60": -7.2, "ret_120": -26.6, "ret_250": -22.4, "mdd_250": -38.0, "vol_250": 34.3, "pos_52w": 69.0}, "S": {"duration": 77, "pricing": 35, "hard": 0, "bondness": 94}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 107%、股息率 5.2%、营收 3 年复合 -15.5%、有息负债/EBITDA 3.1 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 0%,毛利率近 5 年中位 3.2%。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.0%(经营现金流/市值 2.6%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 3.2%,稳定度 76%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.3 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 0%,资本开支/折旧 10.11 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 59.3 倍 粗算,约 92%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -22%,最大回撤 -38%,年化波动 34%,现价在 52 周高点的 69%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -1% / -7% / -27%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「专业连锁Ⅱ」7 家中位:PE 28.8 / 股息率 2.0% / 毛利率 15.2% / 固定资产占比 4% / 分红率 46%。", "爱施德:PE 比行业中位高 30.5倍;股息率 比行业中位高 3.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 12.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 4.2个百分点。"]}}