{"F": {"ts_code": "002415.SZ", "name": "海康威视", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "计算机设备", "sw3": "安防设备", "ind": "计算机设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20100528", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 34.87, "pe_ttm": 19.4465, "pb": 3.7889, "dv_ttm": 3.7281, "total_mv": 31957906.9205, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [46.5, 44.3, 42.3, 44.4, 43.8, 45.9], "rev_series": [635.0, 814.2, 831.7, 893.4, 925.0, 925.1], "np_series": [133.9, 168.0, 128.4, 141.1, 119.8, 142.0], "roe_series": [27.1, 28.7, 19.5, 19.5, 15.3, 17.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 975.1, "np_ttm": 164.3, "ocf_ttm": 232.3, "fcf_ttm": 200.9, "fcf_yield": 6.3, "ocf_yield": 7.3, "gm_median": 44.3, "gm_std": 1.2, "gm_stab": 0.97, "gm_chg_2022": -4.2, "npm_median": 16.7, "roe_median": 19.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 16.0, "fix_assets": 220.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.2, "pb_calc": 3.79, "capex_dep": 1.71, "interest_debt": 50.3, "debt_ebitda": 0.2, "debt_ratio": 32.4, "debt_mv": 1.6, "payout": 59.2, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 3.6, "np_cagr3": 3.4, "rev_yoy": 12.0, "np_yoy": 39.6, "np_vol": 19.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 74.0, "earn_yield": 5.1, "consensus_n": 20, "fwd_pe": 18.4, "fwd_pe2": 16.2, "fwd_g1": 6.0, "fwd_g2": 14.0, "peg": 1.31, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品及服务", 33.0], ["主业产品及服务", 33.0], ["创新业务", 16.0], ["创新业务：机器人业务", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": 0.8, "ret_prev2_year": -9.9, "ret_ytd": 22.2, "ret_pivot": 51.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -5.0, "ret_60": 18.5, "ret_120": 13.8, "ret_250": 18.3, "mdd_250": -16.0, "vol_250": 29.1, "pos_52w": 91.6}, "S": {"duration": 39, "pricing": 60, "hard": 26, "bondness": 60}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 59%、股息率 3.7%、营收 3 年复合 3.6%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.2 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 44.3%),硬资产占比 16%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 6.3%(经营现金流/市值 7.3%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 44.3%,稳定度 97%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.2 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 16%,资本开支/折旧 1.71 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 19.4 倍 粗算,约 74%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 18%,最大回撤 -16%,年化波动 29%,现价在 52 周高点的 92%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -5% / 18% / 14%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「计算机设备」88 家中位:PE 51.7 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 35.8% / 固定资产占比 12% / 分红率 49%。", "海康威视:PE 比行业中位低 32.3倍;股息率 比行业中位高 2.9个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 8.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 4.3个百分点。"]}}