{"F": {"ts_code": "002414.SZ", "name": "高德红外", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "国防军工", "sw2": "军工电子Ⅱ", "sw3": "军工电子Ⅲ", "ind": "军工电子Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20100716", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 12.54, "pe_ttm": 28.848, "pb": 6.3785, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 5355503.0694, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [59.2, 55.9, 46.7, 43.7, 40.7, 56.3], "rev_series": [33.3, 35.0, 25.3, 24.2, 26.8, 46.2], "np_series": [10.0, 11.1, 5.0, 0.7, -4.5, 6.9], "roe_series": [25.4, 18.7, 6.9, 1.0, -6.8, 10.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 69.0, "np_ttm": 18.6, "ocf_ttm": 15.3, "fcf_ttm": 9.2, "fcf_yield": 1.7, "ocf_yield": 2.9, "gm_median": 46.7, "gm_std": 6.4, "gm_stab": 0.86, "gm_chg_2022": -12.5, "npm_median": 14.9, "roe_median": 6.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 21.7, "fix_assets": 25.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 6.38, "capex_dep": 2.47, "interest_debt": 3.6, "debt_ebitda": 0.1, "debt_ratio": 28.1, "debt_mv": 0.7, "payout": 88.1, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 22.2, "np_cagr3": 11.0, "rev_yoy": 117.9, "np_yoy": 646.8, "np_vol": 338.2, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 83.0, "earn_yield": 3.5, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 42.3, "fwd_pe2": 34.5, "fwd_g1": -32.0, "fwd_g2": 22.0, "peg": 1.92, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["红外综合光电及完整装备系统", 48.0], ["技术服务", 1.0], ["其他主营业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 97.4, "ret_prev2_year": 2.0, "ret_ytd": -14.5, "ret_pivot": 111.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -10.8, "ret_60": -0.9, "ret_120": -11.2, "ret_250": -2.9, "mdd_250": -36.0, "vol_250": 45.3, "pos_52w": 67.8}, "S": {"duration": 51, "pricing": 57, "hard": 35, "bondness": 31}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 28.8 倍、股息率 —、毛利率近 5 年中位 46.7%、固定资产占比 22%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.1 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 46.7%),硬资产占比 22%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.7%(经营现金流/市值 2.9%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 46.7%,稳定度 86%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -12.5 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 22%,资本开支/折旧 2.47 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 28.8 倍 粗算,约 83%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -3%,最大回撤 -36%,年化波动 45%,现价在 52 周高点的 68%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -11% / -1% / -11%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「军工电子Ⅱ」61 家中位:PE 79.0 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 39.7% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 33%。", "高德红外:PE 比行业中位低 50.2倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 7.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 7.6个百分点。"]}}