{"F": {"ts_code": "002413.SZ", "name": "雷科防务", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "国防军工", "sw2": "军工电子Ⅱ", "sw3": "军工电子Ⅲ", "ind": "军工电子Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20100528", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 8.12, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 3.2565, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 1071304.6484, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [45.2, 37.9, 28.9, 25.1, 33.7, 31.8], "rev_series": [12.2, 16.2, 13.6, 12.7, 12.4, 14.6], "np_series": [1.7, -2.4, -9.4, -4.4, -4.0, -0.9], "roe_series": [4.5, -5.3, -20.5, -11.1, -10.9, -2.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 14.8, "np_ttm": -0.6, "ocf_ttm": 2.2, "fcf_ttm": 1.4, "fcf_yield": 1.3, "ocf_yield": 2.0, "gm_median": 31.8, "gm_std": 4.3, "gm_stab": 0.86, "gm_chg_2022": -16.3, "npm_median": -31.8, "roe_median": -10.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 8.5, "fix_assets": 4.4, "goodwill_ratio": 7.6, "pb_calc": 3.26, "capex_dep": 1.36, "interest_debt": 3.9, "debt_ebitda": 7.3, "debt_ratio": 36.2, "debt_mv": 3.7, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 2.2, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 3.6, "np_yoy": 56.5, "np_vol": 154.8, "loss_years": 5, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["雷达系统", 21.0], ["智能控制", 18.0], ["卫星服务", 15.0], ["卫星应用", 15.0]], "ret_prev_year": 187.8, "ret_prev2_year": -19.3, "ret_ytd": -35.3, "ret_pivot": 129.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -11.5, "ret_60": -19.4, "ret_120": -41.3, "ret_250": 28.3, "mdd_250": -62.9, "vol_250": 66.0, "pos_52w": 40.3}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 50, "hard": 14, "bondness": 33}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.6 亿,近 5 年亏损 5 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 36%,有息负债 4 亿,经营现金流/市值 2.0%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 31.8%),硬资产占比 8%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.3%(经营现金流/市值 2.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 31.8%,稳定度 86%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -16.3 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 8%,资本开支/折旧 1.36 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 28%,最大回撤 -63%,年化波动 66%,现价在 52 周高点的 40%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -12% / -19% / -41%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「军工电子Ⅱ」61 家中位:PE 79.0 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 39.7% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 33%。", "雷科防务:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 7.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 5.6个百分点。"]}}