{"F": {"ts_code": "002409.SZ", "name": "雅克科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "半导体", "sw3": "半导体材料", "ind": "半导体", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20100525", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 126.62, "pe_ttm": 58.0315, "pb": 7.5326, "dv_ttm": 0.4976, "total_mv": 6026195.2712, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [35.5, 25.8, 31.2, 31.3, 31.6, 31.0], "rev_series": [22.7, 37.8, 42.6, 47.4, 68.6, 86.1], "np_series": [4.1, 3.3, 5.2, 5.8, 8.7, 10.0], "roe_series": [9.1, 6.3, 8.4, 8.6, 12.4, 13.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 88.3, "np_ttm": 10.4, "ocf_ttm": 10.0, "fcf_ttm": -0.6, "fcf_yield": -0.1, "ocf_yield": 1.7, "gm_median": 31.2, "gm_std": 2.2, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": -4.3, "npm_median": 12.3, "roe_median": 8.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 36.9, "fix_assets": 62.9, "goodwill_ratio": 11.9, "pb_calc": 7.53, "capex_dep": 2.13, "interest_debt": 37.8, "debt_ebitda": 2.0, "debt_ratio": 33.2, "debt_mv": 6.3, "payout": 30.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 26.4, "np_cagr3": 24.0, "rev_yoy": 5.1, "np_yoy": 7.3, "np_vol": 27.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 91.0, "earn_yield": 1.7, "consensus_n": 10, "fwd_pe": 45.2, "fwd_pe2": 36.7, "fwd_g1": 28.0, "fwd_g2": 23.0, "peg": 1.97, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 37.0], ["半导体化学材料、光刻胶及配套试剂", 19.0], ["化工材料", 11.0], ["化工行业", 11.0]], "ret_prev_year": 29.3, "ret_prev2_year": 5.4, "ret_ytd": 71.6, "ret_pivot": 176.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -14.9, "ret_60": -6.1, "ret_120": 42.5, "ret_250": 109.5, "mdd_250": -48.8, "vol_250": 68.5, "pos_52w": 53.6}, "S": {"duration": 77, "pricing": 52, "hard": 59, "bondness": 19}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 58.0 倍、股息率 0.5%、毛利率近 5 年中位 31.2%、固定资产占比 37%、有息负债/EBITDA 2.0 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "硬资产占比 37%、毛利率 31.2% 两条都占,但所在行业(电子)不在硬资产名单里(医药/科技的固定资产是产能不是储量),按主标签看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.1%(经营现金流/市值 1.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 31.2%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.3 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 37%,资本开支/折旧 2.13 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 58.0 倍 粗算,约 91%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 110%,最大回撤 -49%,年化波动 68%,现价在 52 周高点的 54%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -15% / -6% / 42%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「半导体」186 家中位:PE 81.5 / 股息率 0.3% / 毛利率 35.0% / 固定资产占比 11% / 分红率 32%。", "雅克科技:PE 比行业中位低 23.5倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 3.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 25.5个百分点。"]}}