{"F": {"ts_code": "002408.SZ", "name": "齐翔腾达", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "石油石化", "sw2": "炼化及贸易", "sw3": "其他石化", "ind": "炼化及贸易", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20100518", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 5.44, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 1.3849, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 1546885.062, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [9.3, 12.5, 8.8, 6.1, 5.7, 3.2], "rev_series": [246.9, 348.9, 298.1, 269.2, 252.2, 237.7], "np_series": [9.8, 23.9, 6.3, -3.8, 0.3, -5.7], "roe_series": [11.8, 22.0, 4.8, -3.0, 0.3, -5.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 271.9, "np_ttm": -4.8, "ocf_ttm": 13.1, "fcf_ttm": 13.4, "fcf_yield": 8.6, "ocf_yield": 8.4, "gm_median": 6.1, "gm_std": 3.2, "gm_stab": 0.48, "gm_chg_2022": -0.5, "npm_median": 0.2, "roe_median": 0.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 53.2, "fix_assets": 126.2, "goodwill_ratio": 2.7, "pb_calc": 1.38, "capex_dep": -0.02, "interest_debt": 98.6, "debt_ebitda": 6.4, "debt_ratio": 52.3, "debt_mv": 63.7, "payout": 900.0, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": -7.3, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 28.0, "np_yoy": 402.8, "np_vol": 717.9, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["化工板块", 25.0], ["国外贸易板块", 23.0], ["其他业务", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": -2.4, "ret_prev2_year": -2.3, "ret_ytd": 11.5, "ret_pivot": 18.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 5.6, "ret_60": 11.7, "ret_120": -13.1, "ret_250": 4.8, "mdd_250": -33.9, "vol_250": 36.4, "pos_52w": 77.5}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 27, "hard": 85, "bondness": 70}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 53%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 6.1%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.5 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 6.4 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 53%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 6.1%,稳定度 48%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 8.6%(经营现金流/市值 8.4%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 6.1%,稳定度 48%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.5 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 53%,资本开支/折旧 -0.02 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 5%,最大回撤 -34%,年化波动 36%,现价在 52 周高点的 78%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 6% / 12% / -13%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「炼化及贸易」30 家中位:PE 24.2 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 10.6% / 固定资产占比 43% / 分红率 49%。", "齐翔腾达:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 4.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 10.1个百分点。"]}}