{"F": {"ts_code": "002407.SZ", "name": "多氟多", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学制品", "sw3": "氟化工", "ind": "化学制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20100518", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 32.8, "pe_ttm": 57.9909, "pb": 4.4973, "dv_ttm": 0.5921, "total_mv": 3904618.928, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [13.4, 32.0, 30.5, 16.3, 8.8, 14.0], "rev_series": [42.1, 78.0, 123.6, 119.4, 82.1, 94.3], "np_series": [0.5, 12.6, 19.5, 5.1, -3.1, 2.1], "roe_series": [1.7, 31.4, 33.7, 6.5, -3.5, 2.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 121.4, "np_ttm": 6.7, "ocf_ttm": 5.1, "fcf_ttm": -4.5, "fcf_yield": -1.2, "ocf_yield": 1.3, "gm_median": 16.3, "gm_std": 9.3, "gm_stab": 0.43, "gm_chg_2022": 17.1, "npm_median": 5.4, "roe_median": 6.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 42.0, "fix_assets": 121.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.5, "capex_dep": 0.91, "interest_debt": 95.5, "debt_ebitda": 4.2, "debt_ratio": 61.0, "debt_mv": 24.4, "payout": 88.2, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -8.6, "np_cagr3": -52.2, "rev_yoy": 62.5, "np_yoy": 897.2, "np_vol": 1003.6, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 91.0, "earn_yield": 1.7, "consensus_n": 2, "fwd_pe": 16.8, "fwd_pe2": 13.7, "fwd_g1": 246.0, "fwd_g2": 22.0, "peg": 0.76, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["新能源材料", 35.0], ["新能源电池", 33.0], ["氟基新材料", 20.0], ["其他主营业务", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": 190.6, "ret_prev2_year": -20.1, "ret_ytd": -2.7, "ret_pivot": 262.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -10.2, "ret_60": -14.1, "ret_120": 7.0, "ret_250": 140.5, "mdd_250": -49.1, "vol_250": 72.8, "pos_52w": 59.4}, "S": {"duration": 77, "pricing": 34, "hard": 67, "bondness": 67}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 42%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 16.3%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 17.1 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 4.2 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 42%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 16.3%,稳定度 43%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.2%(经营现金流/市值 1.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 16.3%,稳定度 43%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 17.1 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 42%,资本开支/折旧 0.91 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 58.0 倍 粗算,约 91%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 140%,最大回撤 -49%,年化波动 73%,现价在 52 周高点的 59%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -10% / -14% / 7%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学制品」188 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 22.3% / 固定资产占比 34% / 分红率 41%。", "多氟多:PE 比行业中位高 22.1倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 6.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 7.5个百分点。"]}}