{"F": {"ts_code": "002406.SZ", "name": "远东传动", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "汽车零部件", "sw3": "底盘与发动机系统", "ind": "汽车零部件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20100518", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 6.84, "pe_ttm": 24.7211, "pb": 1.2631, "dv_ttm": 4.386, "total_mv": 499473.9684, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [29.0, 26.0, 24.0, 22.8, 23.1, 27.3], "rev_series": [21.7, 20.1, 10.7, 13.1, 12.8, 15.7], "np_series": [3.2, 2.3, 0.7, 0.9, 1.2, 1.6], "roe_series": [10.4, 6.9, 2.1, 2.5, 3.0, 3.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 17.6, "np_ttm": 2.0, "ocf_ttm": 2.1, "fcf_ttm": 1.7, "fcf_yield": 3.4, "ocf_yield": 4.2, "gm_median": 24.0, "gm_std": 1.7, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": -5.0, "npm_median": 9.2, "roe_median": 3.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 18.8, "fix_assets": 9.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.26, "capex_dep": 0.37, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 24.4, "debt_mv": 0.1, "payout": 93.8, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 13.5, "np_cagr3": 29.0, "rev_yoy": 25.9, "np_yoy": 83.8, "np_vol": 40.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 80.0, "earn_yield": 4.0, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 23.6, "fwd_pe2": 20.7, "fwd_g1": 5.0, "fwd_g2": 14.0, "peg": 1.69, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["整轴", 68.0], ["配件", 29.0], ["其他业务", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": 27.3, "ret_prev2_year": 2.9, "ret_ytd": -10.5, "ret_pivot": 54.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 1.2, "ret_60": -1.0, "ret_120": -8.7, "ret_250": -18.2, "mdd_250": -29.5, "vol_250": 34.5, "pos_52w": 79.1}, "S": {"duration": 46, "pricing": 48, "hard": 30, "bondness": 66}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 94%、股息率 4.4%、营收 3 年复合 13.5%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.0 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 19%,毛利率近 5 年中位 24.0%。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.4%(经营现金流/市值 4.2%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 24.0%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.0 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 19%,资本开支/折旧 0.37 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 24.7 倍 粗算,约 80%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -18%,最大回撤 -30%,年化波动 34%,现价在 52 周高点的 79%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 1% / -1% / -9%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「汽车零部件」274 家中位:PE 30.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 21.4% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 35%。", "远东传动:PE 比行业中位低 5.5倍;股息率 比行业中位高 3.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 2.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 6.7个百分点。"]}}