{"F": {"ts_code": "002404.SZ", "name": "嘉欣丝绸", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "纺织服饰", "sw2": "服装家纺", "sw3": "非运动服装", "ind": "服装家纺", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20100511", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 5.87, "pe_ttm": 19.4262, "pb": 1.6851, "dv_ttm": 5.1107, "total_mv": 328750.2305, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [16.0, 14.5, 14.7, 14.1, 12.4, 12.6], "rev_series": [26.0, 36.9, 43.2, 42.9, 45.6, 47.5], "np_series": [1.9, 1.3, 2.3, 2.2, 1.6, 1.8], "roe_series": [10.8, 7.2, 12.2, 10.8, 8.0, 9.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 48.8, "np_ttm": 1.7, "ocf_ttm": 4.6, "fcf_ttm": 4.2, "fcf_yield": 12.9, "ocf_yield": 14.0, "gm_median": 14.1, "gm_std": 1.0, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": -1.3, "npm_median": 4.1, "roe_median": 9.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 11.4, "fix_assets": 4.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.69, "capex_dep": 0.65, "interest_debt": 7.8, "debt_ebitda": 2.4, "debt_ratio": 41.8, "debt_mv": 23.7, "payout": 93.8, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 3.2, "np_cagr3": -7.9, "rev_yoy": 5.3, "np_yoy": -9.6, "np_vol": 39.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 74.0, "earn_yield": 5.1, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["服装", 50.0], ["丝类产品", 21.0], ["面料产品", 5.0], ["绸类产品", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 20.0, "ret_prev2_year": 8.8, "ret_ytd": -12.5, "ret_pivot": 26.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -0.2, "ret_60": -8.0, "ret_120": -12.6, "ret_250": -7.0, "mdd_250": -27.7, "vol_250": 37.0, "pos_52w": 77.7}, "S": {"duration": 38, "pricing": 46, "hard": 18, "bondness": 87}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 94%、股息率 5.1%、营收 3 年复合 3.2%、有息负债/EBITDA 2.4 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 11%,毛利率近 5 年中位 14.1%。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 12.9%(经营现金流/市值 14.0%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 14.1%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.3 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 11%,资本开支/折旧 0.65 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 19.4 倍 粗算,约 74%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -7%,最大回撤 -28%,年化波动 37%,现价在 52 周高点的 78%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -0% / -8% / -13%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「服装家纺」60 家中位:PE 37.6 / 股息率 2.4% / 毛利率 41.5% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 66%。", "嘉欣丝绸:PE 比行业中位低 18.2倍;股息率 比行业中位高 2.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 27.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 2.7个百分点。"]}}