{"F": {"ts_code": "002401.SZ", "name": "中远海科", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "IT服务Ⅱ", "sw3": "IT服务Ⅲ", "ind": "IT服务Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20100506", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 12.44, "pe_ttm": 119.0246, "pb": 2.7859, "dv_ttm": 0.2251, "total_mv": 462355.614, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [17.3, 19.2, 20.4, 20.6, 17.1, 12.8], "rev_series": [15.2, 17.1, 17.5, 17.8, 18.0, 18.1], "np_series": [1.9, 1.6, 1.8, 1.9, 1.3, 0.3], "roe_series": [18.4, 13.0, 13.4, 12.4, 7.8, 2.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 17.4, "np_ttm": 0.4, "ocf_ttm": 1.6, "fcf_ttm": 1.5, "fcf_yield": 3.3, "ocf_yield": 3.5, "gm_median": 19.2, "gm_std": 2.9, "gm_stab": 0.85, "gm_chg_2022": 3.1, "npm_median": 9.2, "roe_median": 12.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 3.5, "fix_assets": 1.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.79, "capex_dep": 0.51, "interest_debt": 0.4, "debt_ebitda": 7.4, "debt_ratio": 45.0, "debt_mv": 1.0, "payout": 35.2, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 1.0, "np_cagr3": -43.7, "rev_yoy": -8.0, "np_yoy": 64.1, "np_vol": 31.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 96.0, "earn_yield": 0.8, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["数字航运与供应链", 32.0], ["数字城市与交通", 18.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 1.1, "ret_prev2_year": -11.6, "ret_ytd": -21.8, "ret_pivot": -11.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 1.0, "ret_60": 0.2, "ret_120": -19.9, "ret_250": -36.5, "mdd_250": -42.0, "vol_250": 27.1, "pos_52w": 64.5}, "S": {"duration": 95, "pricing": 49, "hard": 6, "bondness": 48}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 119.0 倍,估值里约 96% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 4%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 4%,毛利率近 5 年中位 19.2%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.3%(经营现金流/市值 3.5%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 19.2%,稳定度 85%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 3.1 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 4%,资本开支/折旧 0.51 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 119.0 倍 粗算,约 96%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -36%,最大回撤 -42%,年化波动 27%,现价在 52 周高点的 64%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 1% / 0% / -20%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「IT服务Ⅱ」134 家中位:PE 84.0 / 股息率 0.4% / 毛利率 28.1% / 固定资产占比 9% / 分红率 35%。", "中远海科:PE 比行业中位高 35.0倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 8.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 5.1个百分点。"]}}