{"F": {"ts_code": "002400.SZ", "name": "省广集团", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "传媒", "sw2": "广告营销", "sw3": "营销代理", "ind": "广告营销", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20100506", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 6.74, "pe_ttm": 183.2795, "pb": 2.341, "dv_ttm": 0.2374, "total_mv": 1175009.2054, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [10.4, 10.1, 10.1, 8.6, 6.9, 5.8], "rev_series": [132.9, 130.0, 146.0, 166.7, 206.6, 213.5], "np_series": [-9.3, 1.8, 2.1, 1.5, 1.0, 0.9], "roe_series": [-19.0, 4.1, 4.5, 3.2, 2.1, 1.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 232.0, "np_ttm": 0.6, "ocf_ttm": -0.6, "fcf_ttm": -0.8, "fcf_yield": -0.6, "ocf_yield": -0.5, "gm_median": 8.6, "gm_std": 1.7, "gm_stab": 0.8, "gm_chg_2022": -0.3, "npm_median": 0.9, "roe_median": 3.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 5.3, "fix_assets": 7.4, "goodwill_ratio": 2.2, "pb_calc": 2.34, "capex_dep": 0.66, "interest_debt": 28.6, "debt_ebitda": 12.1, "debt_ratio": 63.3, "debt_mv": 24.3, "payout": 31.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 13.5, "np_cagr3": -25.0, "rev_yoy": 19.9, "np_yoy": -42.5, "np_vol": 56.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 97.0, "earn_yield": 0.5, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["数字营销", 45.0], ["媒介代理", 3.0], ["公关活动", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 11.4, "ret_prev2_year": 44.9, "ret_ytd": -24.0, "ret_pivot": 43.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -2.5, "ret_60": -1.7, "ret_120": -25.5, "ret_250": -19.4, "mdd_250": -58.1, "vol_250": 54.3, "pos_52w": 48.8}, "S": {"duration": 99, "pricing": 40, "hard": 8, "bondness": 34}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 183.3 倍,估值里约 97% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 5%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 5%,毛利率近 5 年中位 8.6%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.6%(经营现金流/市值 -0.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 8.6%,稳定度 80%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.3 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 5%,资本开支/折旧 0.66 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 183.3 倍 粗算,约 97%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -19%,最大回撤 -58%,年化波动 54%,现价在 52 周高点的 49%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -2% / -2% / -26%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「广告营销」28 家中位:PE 98.3 / 股息率 0.2% / 毛利率 14.7% / 固定资产占比 3% / 分红率 32%。", "省广集团:PE 比行业中位高 85.0倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位低 6.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 2.4个百分点。"]}}