{"F": {"ts_code": "002399.SZ", "name": "海普瑞", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "医药生物", "sw2": "化学制药", "sw3": "化学制剂", "ind": "化学制药", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20100506", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 9.83, "pe_ttm": 71.0798, "pb": 1.2086, "dv_ttm": 1.4751, "total_mv": 1442352.1646, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [39.2, 31.9, 32.6, 33.1, 33.3, 31.8], "rev_series": [53.3, 63.7, 71.6, 54.5, 52.8, 54.8], "np_series": [10.2, 2.4, 7.3, -7.8, 6.5, 3.5], "roe_series": [10.8, 2.1, 6.1, -6.5, 5.4, 2.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 52.4, "np_ttm": 2.0, "ocf_ttm": 14.8, "fcf_ttm": 14.0, "fcf_yield": 9.7, "ocf_yield": 10.3, "gm_median": 32.6, "gm_std": 0.6, "gm_stab": 0.98, "gm_chg_2022": -6.5, "npm_median": 6.3, "roe_median": 2.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 13.4, "fix_assets": 21.9, "goodwill_ratio": 13.7, "pb_calc": 1.21, "capex_dep": 0.28, "interest_debt": 28.9, "debt_ebitda": 3.2, "debt_ratio": 26.5, "debt_mv": 20.1, "payout": 58.8, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -8.5, "np_cagr3": -21.7, "rev_yoy": -8.4, "np_yoy": -34.7, "np_vol": 157.9, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 93.0, "earn_yield": 1.4, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 46.0], ["制剂", 32.0], ["CDMO业务", 7.0], ["CDMO", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": 13.1, "ret_prev2_year": -9.2, "ret_ytd": -15.6, "ret_pivot": 12.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -1.3, "ret_60": 7.1, "ret_120": -12.9, "ret_250": -26.2, "mdd_250": -34.6, "vol_250": 30.9, "pos_52w": 74.3}, "S": {"duration": 83, "pricing": 54, "hard": 21, "bondness": 59}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 71.1 倍,估值里约 93% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 13%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 32.6%),硬资产占比 13%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 9.7%(经营现金流/市值 10.3%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 32.6%,稳定度 98%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.5 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 13%,资本开支/折旧 0.28 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 71.1 倍 粗算,约 93%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -26%,最大回撤 -35%,年化波动 31%,现价在 52 周高点的 74%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -1% / 7% / -13%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学制药」157 家中位:PE 37.5 / 股息率 1.2% / 毛利率 52.5% / 固定资产占比 30% / 分红率 38%。", "海普瑞:PE 比行业中位高 33.6倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 19.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 16.4个百分点。"]}}