{"F": {"ts_code": "002397.SZ", "name": "梦洁股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "纺织服饰", "sw2": "服装家纺", "sw3": "家纺", "ind": "服装家纺", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20100429", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 3.9, "pe_ttm": 50.5302, "pb": 2.3307, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 291634.785, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [39.9, 37.8, 33.1, 41.3, 40.2, 39.5], "rev_series": [22.2, 24.6, 20.3, 21.6, 17.1, 16.8], "np_series": [0.4, -1.6, -4.5, 0.2, 0.3, 0.5], "roe_series": [2.4, -9.2, -32.8, 2.0, 2.3, 4.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 17.1, "np_ttm": 0.6, "ocf_ttm": 0.6, "fcf_ttm": 0.0, "fcf_yield": 0.1, "ocf_yield": 2.1, "gm_median": 39.5, "gm_std": 2.9, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": -6.9, "npm_median": 1.1, "roe_median": 2.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 41.7, "fix_assets": 10.1, "goodwill_ratio": 2.0, "pb_calc": 2.33, "capex_dep": 0.99, "interest_debt": 3.8, "debt_ebitda": 2.2, "debt_ratio": 48.5, "debt_mv": 13.1, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -6.2, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 2.6, "np_yoy": 41.9, "np_vol": 207.7, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 90.0, "earn_yield": 2.0, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["套件", 27.0], ["被芯", 26.0], ["其他类", 22.0], ["其他", 22.0]], "ret_prev_year": 37.1, "ret_prev2_year": -29.0, "ret_ytd": -3.2, "ret_pivot": 103.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 13.4, "ret_60": -7.8, "ret_120": -5.1, "ret_250": -0.8, "mdd_250": -45.0, "vol_250": 45.9, "pos_52w": 67.2}, "S": {"duration": 72, "pricing": 56, "hard": 67, "bondness": 27}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 0.6 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 51 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 48%,有息负债 4 亿,经营现金流/市值 2.1%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "硬资产占比 42%、毛利率 39.5% 两条都占,但所在行业(纺织服饰)不在硬资产名单里(医药/科技的固定资产是产能不是储量),按主标签看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.1%(经营现金流/市值 2.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 39.5%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.9 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 42%,资本开支/折旧 0.99 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 50.5 倍 粗算,约 90%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -1%,最大回撤 -45%,年化波动 46%,现价在 52 周高点的 67%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 13% / -8% / -5%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「服装家纺」60 家中位:PE 37.6 / 股息率 2.4% / 毛利率 41.5% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 66%。", "梦洁股份:PE 比行业中位高 12.9倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 2.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 27.6个百分点。"]}}