{"F": {"ts_code": "002394.SZ", "name": "联发股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "纺织服饰", "sw2": "纺织制造", "sw3": "棉纺", "ind": "纺织制造", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20100423", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 10.77, "pe_ttm": 25.1056, "pb": 0.8374, "dv_ttm": 4.6425, "total_mv": 348624.9, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [18.7, 15.8, 14.1, 16.9, 17.1, 18.4], "rev_series": [38.7, 39.0, 42.1, 42.6, 41.8, 40.2], "np_series": [4.7, 1.8, 1.6, 1.5, 2.0, 3.0], "roe_series": [13.2, 4.9, 4.1, 3.8, 5.0, 7.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 37.6, "np_ttm": 1.4, "ocf_ttm": 2.4, "fcf_ttm": 0.3, "fcf_yield": 1.0, "ocf_yield": 6.8, "gm_median": 16.9, "gm_std": 1.4, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": -4.6, "npm_median": 4.5, "roe_median": 4.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 28.8, "fix_assets": 15.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 0.84, "capex_dep": 1.11, "interest_debt": 4.2, "debt_ebitda": 0.9, "debt_ratio": 21.4, "debt_mv": 11.9, "payout": 53.2, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": -1.5, "np_cagr3": 23.9, "rev_yoy": -13.0, "np_yoy": -89.5, "np_vol": 39.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 80.0, "earn_yield": 4.0, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["面料", 59.0], ["其他业务", 15.0], ["棉纱", 12.0], ["衬衣", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": 122.0, "ret_prev2_year": -10.2, "ret_ytd": -29.9, "ret_pivot": 103.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 11.5, "ret_60": 15.8, "ret_120": -33.1, "ret_250": 2.6, "mdd_250": -60.2, "vol_250": 54.2, "pos_52w": 55.3}, "S": {"duration": 47, "pricing": 45, "hard": 46, "bondness": 69}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 53%、股息率 4.6%、营收 3 年复合 -1.5%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.9 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 29%,毛利率近 5 年中位 16.9%。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.0%(经营现金流/市值 6.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 16.9%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.6 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 29%,资本开支/折旧 1.11 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 25.1 倍 粗算,约 80%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 3%,最大回撤 -60%,年化波动 54%,现价在 52 周高点的 55%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 12% / 16% / -33%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「纺织制造」33 家中位:PE 23.1 / 股息率 1.3% / 毛利率 16.9% / 固定资产占比 30% / 分红率 46%。", "联发股份:PE 比行业中位高 2.0倍;股息率 比行业中位高 3.3个百分点;毛利率 与行业中位持平;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 1.3个百分点。"]}}