{"F": {"ts_code": "002392.SZ", "name": "北京利尔", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "建筑材料", "sw2": "装修建材", "sw3": "耐火材料", "ind": "装修建材", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20100423", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 7.87, "pe_ttm": 16.5091, "pb": 1.5204, "dv_ttm": 0.4447, "total_mv": 936916.2596, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [21.6, 18.5, 17.1, 18.4, 14.4, 14.2], "rev_series": [43.1, 49.1, 47.2, 56.5, 63.3, 69.7], "np_series": [4.5, 4.0, 2.6, 3.9, 3.2, 4.0], "roe_series": [11.4, 9.1, 5.4, 7.7, 6.0, 7.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 74.7, "np_ttm": 5.7, "ocf_ttm": 1.3, "fcf_ttm": 0.7, "fcf_yield": 0.8, "ocf_yield": 1.4, "gm_median": 17.1, "gm_std": 1.9, "gm_stab": 0.89, "gm_chg_2022": -4.5, "npm_median": 5.9, "roe_median": 7.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 10.5, "fix_assets": 11.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.1, "pb_calc": 1.52, "capex_dep": 0.39, "interest_debt": 7.9, "debt_ebitda": 1.6, "debt_ratio": 43.1, "debt_mv": 8.4, "payout": 12.2, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 13.9, "np_cagr3": 16.1, "rev_yoy": 14.4, "np_yoy": 76.5, "np_vol": 32.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 70.0, "earn_yield": 6.1, "consensus_n": 4, "fwd_pe": 19.1, "fwd_pe2": 18.2, "fwd_g1": -13.0, "fwd_g2": 5.0, "peg": 3.82, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 47.0], ["耐火材料整体承包", 28.0], ["其他直销", 13.0], ["耐火材料直销", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": 60.0, "ret_prev2_year": 27.5, "ret_ytd": 5.7, "ret_pivot": 167.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 4.9, "ret_60": 6.7, "ret_120": 3.6, "ret_250": 1.1, "mdd_250": -38.9, "vol_250": 51.5, "pos_52w": 72.0}, "S": {"duration": 34, "pricing": 44, "hard": 17, "bondness": 18}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 16.5 倍、股息率 0.4%、毛利率近 5 年中位 17.1%、固定资产占比 10%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.6 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 10%,毛利率近 5 年中位 17.1%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.8%(经营现金流/市值 1.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 17.1%,稳定度 89%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.5 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 10%,资本开支/折旧 0.39 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 16.5 倍 粗算,约 70%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 1%,最大回撤 -39%,年化波动 52%,现价在 52 周高点的 72%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 5% / 7% / 4%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「装修建材」39 家中位:PE 36.1 / 股息率 1.6% / 毛利率 20.7% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 51%。", "北京利尔:PE 比行业中位低 19.6倍;股息率 比行业中位低 1.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 3.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 10.3个百分点。"]}}