{"F": {"ts_code": "002391.SZ", "name": "长青股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "农化制品", "sw3": "农药", "ind": "农化制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20100416", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 5.37, "pe_ttm": 66.8064, "pb": 0.8348, "dv_ttm": 3.5826, "total_mv": 348831.1725, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [18.3, 17.5, 17.2, 14.5, 8.7, 13.8], "rev_series": [30.1, 37.6, 42.4, 36.1, 35.2, 36.9], "np_series": [1.9, 2.5, 2.6, 0.7, -1.2, 0.4], "roe_series": [5.0, 5.6, 5.7, 1.6, -2.7, 1.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 37.7, "np_ttm": 0.5, "ocf_ttm": 4.5, "fcf_ttm": -2.0, "fcf_yield": -5.6, "ocf_yield": 12.8, "gm_median": 14.5, "gm_std": 3.2, "gm_stab": 0.78, "gm_chg_2022": -1.0, "npm_median": 2.0, "roe_median": 1.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 58.7, "fix_assets": 52.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 0.83, "capex_dep": 1.43, "interest_debt": 34.2, "debt_ebitda": 5.6, "debt_ratio": 53.5, "debt_mv": 98.0, "payout": 243.1, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -4.6, "np_cagr3": -46.3, "rev_yoy": 4.0, "np_yoy": 27.6, "np_vol": 132.6, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 93.0, "earn_yield": 1.5, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 26.8, "fwd_pe2": 18.5, "fwd_g1": 149.0, "fwd_g2": 45.0, "peg": 0.6, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["除草剂", 44.0], ["杀虫剂", 40.0], ["杀菌剂", 13.0], ["服务业收入", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 19.1, "ret_prev2_year": -18.5, "ret_ytd": -6.3, "ret_pivot": 26.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 2.5, "ret_60": 4.1, "ret_120": -17.6, "ret_250": -12.1, "mdd_250": -26.1, "vol_250": 31.4, "pos_52w": 81.5}, "S": {"duration": 81, "pricing": 41, "hard": 94, "bondness": 91}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["现金流红利", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 59%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 14.5%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.0 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 5.6 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 59%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 14.5%,稳定度 78%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -5.6%(经营现金流/市值 12.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 14.5%,稳定度 78%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.0 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 59%,资本开支/折旧 1.43 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 66.8 倍 粗算,约 93%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -12%,最大回撤 -26%,年化波动 31%,现价在 52 周高点的 82%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / 4% / -18%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「农化制品」62 家中位:PE 20.8 / 股息率 2.0% / 毛利率 19.9% / 固定资产占比 36% / 分红率 45%。", "长青股份:PE 比行业中位高 46.0倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 5.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 23.1个百分点。"]}}