{"F": {"ts_code": "002387.SZ", "name": "维信诺", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "光学光电子", "sw3": "面板", "ind": "光学光电子", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20100413", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 7.02, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 5.5635, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 980550.792, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [27.1, -2.7, -4.7, -35.3, -7.9, -1.4], "rev_series": [34.3, 45.4, 74.8, 59.3, 79.3, 81.4], "np_series": [2.0, -16.4, -20.7, -37.3, -25.1, -23.9], "roe_series": [1.3, -11.4, -16.4, -37.5, -36.6, -54.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 80.3, "np_ttm": -28.5, "ocf_ttm": 25.5, "fcf_ttm": 13.9, "fcf_yield": 14.1, "ocf_yield": 26.0, "gm_median": -4.7, "gm_std": 12.6, "gm_stab": 3.69, "gm_chg_2022": -31.8, "npm_median": -38.0, "roe_median": -36.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 38.4, "fix_assets": 184.7, "goodwill_ratio": 1.5, "pb_calc": 5.56, "capex_dep": 0.59, "interest_debt": 288.8, "debt_ebitda": 38.5, "debt_ratio": 87.6, "debt_mv": 294.5, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 2.9, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -2.9, "np_yoy": -43.0, "np_vol": 356.1, "loss_years": 5, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 5, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["OLED产品", 32.0], ["OLED", 32.0], ["其他产品或服务", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": -16.1, "ret_prev2_year": -8.3, "ret_ytd": -18.6, "ret_pivot": 16.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -1.0, "ret_60": -14.5, "ret_120": -17.5, "ret_250": -32.3, "mdd_250": -42.4, "vol_250": 42.3, "pos_52w": 66.0}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 39, "hard": 61, "bondness": 32}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 38%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 -4.7%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -31.8 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 38.5 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 38%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 -4.7%,稳定度 369%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 14.1%(经营现金流/市值 26.0%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 -4.7%,稳定度 369%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -31.8 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 38%,资本开支/折旧 0.59 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -32%,最大回撤 -42%,年化波动 42%,现价在 52 周高点的 66%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -1% / -14% / -18%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「光学光电子」95 家中位:PE 61.6 / 股息率 0.6% / 毛利率 19.3% / 固定资产占比 31% / 分红率 43%。", "维信诺:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 24.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 7.0个百分点。"]}}