{"F": {"ts_code": "002385.SZ", "name": "大北农", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "农林牧渔", "sw2": "饲料", "sw3": "畜禽饲料", "ind": "饲料", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20100409", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 3.46, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 2.1578, "dv_ttm": 0.8671, "total_mv": 1481008.6999, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [22.0, 10.5, 13.1, 9.6, 15.1, 12.7], "rev_series": [228.1, 313.3, 324.0, 333.9, 287.7, 291.2], "np_series": [19.6, -4.4, 0.6, -21.7, 3.5, -6.4], "roe_series": [18.5, -4.0, 0.5, -23.1, 4.2, -7.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 293.7, "np_ttm": -15.5, "ocf_ttm": -4.2, "fcf_ttm": -10.7, "fcf_yield": -7.2, "ocf_yield": -2.8, "gm_median": 12.7, "gm_std": 2.0, "gm_stab": 0.85, "gm_chg_2022": -9.0, "npm_median": -1.7, "roe_median": -4.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 34.5, "fix_assets": 97.9, "goodwill_ratio": 2.3, "pb_calc": 2.16, "capex_dep": 0.75, "interest_debt": 135.9, "debt_ebitda": 32.6, "debt_ratio": 69.9, "debt_mv": 91.7, "payout": 72.5, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -3.5, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 1.9, "np_yoy": -387.5, "np_vol": 1731.0, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 44.0], ["饲料产品", 30.0], ["生猪产品", 10.0], ["养猪产品", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": -7.0, "ret_prev2_year": -26.8, "ret_ytd": -13.5, "ret_pivot": -8.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 15.7, "ret_60": 10.5, "ret_120": -19.3, "ret_250": -18.4, "mdd_250": -41.0, "vol_250": 30.9, "pos_52w": 75.4}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 40, "hard": 55, "bondness": 66}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 34%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 12.7%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -9.0 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 32.6 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 34%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 12.7%,稳定度 85%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -7.2%(经营现金流/市值 -2.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 12.7%,稳定度 85%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -9.0 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 34%,资本开支/折旧 0.75 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -18%,最大回撤 -41%,年化波动 31%,现价在 52 周高点的 75%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 16% / 10% / -19%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「饲料」19 家中位:PE 44.7 / 股息率 1.2% / 毛利率 9.9% / 固定资产占比 35% / 分红率 40%。", "大北农:PE ;股息率 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 2.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 0.9个百分点。"]}}