{"F": {"ts_code": "002384.SZ", "name": "东山精密", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "元件", "sw3": "印制电路板", "ind": "元件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20100409", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 178.67, "pe_ttm": 91.2851, "pb": 13.4303, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 32725331.2025, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [16.3, 14.7, 17.6, 15.2, 14.0, 14.1], "rev_series": [280.9, 317.9, 315.8, 336.5, 367.7, 401.2], "np_series": [15.3, 18.6, 23.7, 19.6, 10.9, 13.9], "roe_series": [14.1, 13.5, 15.3, 11.4, 5.9, 6.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 509.7, "np_ttm": 35.8, "ocf_ttm": 51.9, "fcf_ttm": -23.0, "fcf_yield": -0.7, "ocf_yield": 1.6, "gm_median": 14.7, "gm_std": 1.3, "gm_stab": 0.91, "gm_chg_2022": 1.3, "npm_median": 5.8, "roe_median": 11.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 31.4, "fix_assets": 217.0, "goodwill_ratio": 6.8, "pb_calc": 13.43, "capex_dep": 2.59, "interest_debt": 241.4, "debt_ebitda": 3.1, "debt_ratio": 64.5, "debt_mv": 7.4, "payout": 16.3, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 8.3, "np_cagr3": -16.3, "rev_yoy": 63.9, "np_yoy": 290.1, "np_vol": 29.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 95.0, "earn_yield": 1.1, "consensus_n": 15, "fwd_pe": 44.7, "fwd_pe2": 21.2, "fwd_g1": 104.0, "fwd_g2": 111.0, "peg": 0.4, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["电子电路产品", 25.0], ["电子电路", 25.0], ["精密组件产品", 13.0], ["精密组件", 13.0]], "ret_prev_year": 190.6, "ret_prev2_year": 63.1, "ret_ytd": 111.1, "ret_pivot": 822.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -8.5, "ret_60": -15.3, "ret_120": 61.1, "ret_250": 212.6, "mdd_250": -41.3, "vol_250": 76.3, "pos_52w": 64.8}, "S": {"duration": 90, "pricing": 48, "hard": 50, "bondness": 27}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 31%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 14.7%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.3 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 3.1 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 31%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 14.7%,稳定度 91%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.7%(经营现金流/市值 1.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 14.7%,稳定度 91%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.3 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 31%,资本开支/折旧 2.59 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 91.3 倍 粗算,约 95%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 213%,最大回撤 -41%,年化波动 76%,现价在 52 周高点的 65%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -8% / -15% / 61%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「元件」67 家中位:PE 65.2 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 21.3% / 固定资产占比 36% / 分红率 44%。", "东山精密:PE 比行业中位高 26.1倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 6.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 4.5个百分点。"]}}