{"F": {"ts_code": "002381.SZ", "name": "双箭股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "橡胶", "sw3": "其他橡胶制品", "ind": "橡胶", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20100402", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 5.6, "pe_ttm": 59.4503, "pb": 1.0882, "dv_ttm": 1.7857, "total_mv": 230483.624, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [30.2, 18.9, 17.0, 20.8, 17.6, 15.5], "rev_series": [18.1, 19.2, 23.4, 25.9, 27.1, 26.7], "np_series": [3.2, 1.5, 1.1, 2.4, 1.5, 0.7], "roe_series": [16.8, 7.7, 5.9, 11.8, 7.1, 3.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 25.8, "np_ttm": 0.4, "ocf_ttm": 2.4, "fcf_ttm": 1.4, "fcf_yield": 6.0, "ocf_yield": 10.6, "gm_median": 17.6, "gm_std": 1.8, "gm_stab": 0.9, "gm_chg_2022": -13.3, "npm_median": 5.7, "roe_median": 7.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 31.9, "fix_assets": 12.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.08, "capex_dep": 0.96, "interest_debt": 7.5, "debt_ebitda": 3.9, "debt_ratio": 45.0, "debt_mv": 32.7, "payout": 54.1, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 4.6, "np_cagr3": -16.9, "rev_yoy": -6.9, "np_yoy": -60.4, "np_vol": 63.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 92.0, "earn_yield": 1.7, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 49.0], ["输送带", 47.0], ["养老行业", 2.0], ["养老服务", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 2.0, "ret_prev2_year": -9.5, "ret_ytd": -13.7, "ret_pivot": -2.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 5.1, "ret_60": 1.3, "ret_120": -20.0, "ret_250": -20.0, "mdd_250": -30.7, "vol_250": 25.8, "pos_52w": 79.0}, "S": {"duration": 77, "pricing": 44, "hard": 51, "bondness": 57}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 32%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 17.6%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -13.3 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 3.9 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 32%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 17.6%,稳定度 90%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 6.0%(经营现金流/市值 10.6%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 17.6%,稳定度 90%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -13.3 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 32%,资本开支/折旧 0.96 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 59.5 倍 粗算,约 92%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -20%,最大回撤 -31%,年化波动 26%,现价在 52 周高点的 79%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 5% / 1% / -20%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「橡胶」23 家中位:PE 29.4 / 股息率 1.5% / 毛利率 23.7% / 固定资产占比 27% / 分红率 47%。", "双箭股份:PE 比行业中位高 30.1倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 6.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 4.9个百分点。"]}}