{"F": {"ts_code": "002379.SZ", "name": "宏桥控股", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "有色金属", "sw2": "工业金属", "sw3": "铝", "ind": "工业金属", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20100331", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 18.94, "pe_ttm": 10.0041, "pb": 4.2635, "dv_ttm": 1.32, "total_mv": 24680937.8708, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [0.0, 2.6, 5.8, 1.0, 1.7, 19.4], "rev_series": [23.7, 31.9, 35.3, 26.9, 34.9, 1567.2], "np_series": [-1.6, -0.8, 0.2, -1.5, -0.7, 178.6], "roe_series": [-11.0, -5.4, 1.7, -8.5, -3.5, 75.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 2417.8, "np_ttm": 336.3, "ocf_ttm": 427.5, "fcf_ttm": 353.4, "fcf_yield": 14.3, "ocf_yield": 17.3, "gm_median": 2.6, "gm_std": 6.8, "gm_stab": -1.63, "gm_chg_2022": 5.7, "npm_median": -2.0, "roe_median": -3.5, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 39.4, "fix_assets": 413.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.26, "capex_dep": 1.22, "interest_debt": 184.9, "debt_ebitda": 0.3, "debt_ratio": 44.8, "debt_mv": 7.5, "payout": 18.2, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": 254.1, "np_cagr3": 821.3, "rev_yoy": 12.0, "np_yoy": 77.0, "np_vol": 320.8, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 50.0, "earn_yield": 10.0, "consensus_n": 8, "fwd_pe": 7.9, "fwd_pe2": 7.7, "fwd_g1": 27.0, "fwd_g2": 2.0, "peg": 3.95, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["液态铝", 51.0], ["氧化铝", 13.0], ["氧化铝、水晶石等销售", 13.0], ["铝深加工产品", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": 171.4, "ret_prev2_year": 103.3, "ret_ytd": -20.0, "ret_pivot": 319.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -4.1, "ret_60": 11.5, "ret_120": -39.8, "ret_250": 15.7, "mdd_250": -56.2, "vol_250": 55.7, "pos_52w": 58.7}, "S": {"duration": 22, "pricing": 70, "hard": 63, "bondness": 15}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["商品定价", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 336.3 亿,近 5 年亏损 3 年;PE 10 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 45%,有息负债 185 亿,经营现金流/市值 17.3%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "硬资产占比 39%、毛利率 2.6% 两条都占,但所在行业(有色金属)不在硬资产名单里(医药/科技的固定资产是产能不是储量),按主标签看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 14.3%(经营现金流/市值 17.3%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 2.6%,稳定度 -163%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 5.7 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 39%,资本开支/折旧 1.22 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 10.0 倍 粗算,约 50%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 16%,最大回撤 -56%,年化波动 56%,现价在 52 周高点的 59%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -4% / 12% / -40%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「工业金属」60 家中位:PE 20.5 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 10.8% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 32%。", "宏桥控股:PE 比行业中位低 10.5倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 8.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 11.9个百分点。"]}}