{"F": {"ts_code": "002378.SZ", "name": "章源钨业", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "有色金属", "sw2": "小金属", "sw3": "钨", "ind": "小金属", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20100331", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 23.7, "pe_ttm": 32.9959, "pb": 9.8724, "dv_ttm": 0.5063, "total_mv": 2847359.712, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [13.9, 15.1, 15.6, 15.0, 16.1, 16.3], "rev_series": [19.3, 26.6, 32.0, 34.0, 36.7, 52.0], "np_series": [0.4, 1.7, 2.0, 1.4, 1.7, 2.9], "roe_series": [2.2, 9.3, 10.5, 7.1, 8.3, 13.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 86.5, "np_ttm": 8.6, "ocf_ttm": -2.5, "fcf_ttm": -4.2, "fcf_yield": -1.5, "ocf_yield": -0.9, "gm_median": 15.6, "gm_std": 0.5, "gm_stab": 0.97, "gm_chg_2022": 1.6, "npm_median": 5.6, "roe_median": 9.3, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 13.8, "fix_assets": 14.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 9.87, "capex_dep": 0.94, "interest_debt": 27.5, "debt_ebitda": 1.8, "debt_ratio": 71.6, "debt_mv": 9.7, "payout": 50.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 17.5, "np_cagr3": 12.6, "rev_yoy": 143.7, "np_yoy": 497.4, "np_vol": 133.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 85.0, "earn_yield": 3.0, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["钨粉末产品", 26.0], ["钨粉", 26.0], ["硬质合金系列", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": 124.0, "ret_prev2_year": 16.1, "ret_ytd": 68.6, "ret_pivot": 324.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -12.3, "ret_60": -29.3, "ret_120": -35.6, "ret_250": 78.7, "mdd_250": -52.3, "vol_250": 69.2, "pos_52w": 52.8}, "S": {"duration": 56, "pricing": 70, "hard": 22, "bondness": 28}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["商品定价"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 33.0 倍、股息率 0.5%、毛利率近 5 年中位 15.6%、固定资产占比 14%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.8 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 15.6%),硬资产占比 14%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.5%(经营现金流/市值 -0.9%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 15.6%,稳定度 97%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.6 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 14%,资本开支/折旧 0.94 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 33.0 倍 粗算,约 85%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 79%,最大回撤 -52%,年化波动 69%,现价在 52 周高点的 53%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -12% / -29% / -36%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「小金属」29 家中位:PE 36.9 / 股息率 0.6% / 毛利率 18.3% / 固定资产占比 22% / 分红率 35%。", "章源钨业:PE 比行业中位低 3.9倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 2.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 7.9个百分点。"]}}