{"F": {"ts_code": "002376.SZ", "name": "新北洋", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "计算机设备", "sw3": "其他计算机设备", "ind": "计算机设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20100323", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 6.68, "pe_ttm": 59.3499, "pb": 1.4648, "dv_ttm": 2.9317, "total_mv": 541455.8168, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [37.7, 29.5, 27.7, 30.8, 28.2, 24.9], "rev_series": [24.0, 26.5, 22.8, 21.9, 23.8, 27.9], "np_series": [1.9, 1.5, -0.3, 0.2, 0.5, 0.8], "roe_series": [5.2, 4.1, -0.7, 0.6, 1.4, 2.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 30.8, "np_ttm": 0.9, "ocf_ttm": 1.6, "fcf_ttm": 1.0, "fcf_yield": 1.8, "ocf_yield": 3.0, "gm_median": 28.2, "gm_std": 2.0, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": -10.0, "npm_median": 4.4, "roe_median": 1.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 21.8, "fix_assets": 13.6, "goodwill_ratio": 5.1, "pb_calc": 1.46, "capex_dep": 0.49, "interest_debt": 9.0, "debt_ebitda": 4.2, "debt_ratio": 36.5, "debt_mv": 16.6, "payout": 266.7, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 7.0, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 23.0, "np_yoy": 42.7, "np_vol": 108.8, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 92.0, "earn_yield": 1.7, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["智能自助终端产品", 21.0], ["智能自助终端", 21.0], ["打印扫描产品", 12.0], ["运营服务业务", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": 22.9, "ret_prev2_year": -13.4, "ret_ytd": -11.2, "ret_pivot": 26.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 1.4, "ret_60": 10.6, "ret_120": -9.1, "ret_250": -18.7, "mdd_250": -31.7, "vol_250": 29.0, "pos_52w": 81.2}, "S": {"duration": 77, "pricing": 50, "hard": 35, "bondness": 78}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 59.3 倍、股息率 2.9%、毛利率近 5 年中位 28.2%、固定资产占比 22%、有息负债/EBITDA 4.2 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 22%,毛利率近 5 年中位 28.2%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.8%(经营现金流/市值 3.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 28.2%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -10.0 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 22%,资本开支/折旧 0.49 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 59.3 倍 粗算,约 92%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -19%,最大回撤 -32%,年化波动 29%,现价在 52 周高点的 81%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 1% / 11% / -9%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「计算机设备」88 家中位:PE 51.7 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 35.8% / 固定资产占比 12% / 分红率 49%。", "新北洋:PE 比行业中位高 7.6倍;股息率 比行业中位高 2.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 7.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 10.1个百分点。"]}}