{"F": {"ts_code": "002371.SZ", "name": "北方华创", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "半导体", "sw3": "半导体设备", "ind": "半导体", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20100316", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 638.17, "pe_ttm": 81.4761, "pb": 11.4222, "dv_ttm": 0.1194, "total_mv": 46311307.6764, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [36.7, 39.4, 43.8, 41.1, 42.9, 40.1], "rev_series": [60.6, 96.8, 146.9, 220.8, 298.4, 393.5], "np_series": [5.4, 10.8, 23.5, 39.0, 56.2, 55.2], "roe_series": [8.5, 9.1, 12.8, 17.7, 20.3, 16.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 433.7, "np_ttm": 56.8, "ocf_ttm": 91.0, "fcf_ttm": 63.4, "fcf_yield": 1.4, "ocf_yield": 2.0, "gm_median": 41.1, "gm_std": 1.7, "gm_stab": 0.96, "gm_chg_2022": 7.1, "npm_median": 17.3, "roe_median": 16.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 8.5, "fix_assets": 80.1, "goodwill_ratio": 2.5, "pb_calc": 11.42, "capex_dep": 5.52, "interest_debt": 139.5, "debt_ebitda": 1.7, "debt_ratio": 50.3, "debt_mv": 3.0, "payout": 10.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 38.9, "np_cagr3": 32.9, "rev_yoy": 24.9, "np_yoy": 5.1, "np_vol": 42.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 94.0, "earn_yield": 1.2, "consensus_n": 26, "fwd_pe": 63.6, "fwd_pe2": 44.4, "fwd_g1": 28.0, "fwd_g2": 43.0, "peg": 1.48, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 49.0], ["电子工艺装备", 47.0], ["电子元器件", 2.0], ["电子元件", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 59.1, "ret_prev2_year": 60.2, "ret_ytd": 39.2, "ret_pivot": 205.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -15.1, "ret_60": 0.2, "ret_120": 39.6, "ret_250": 68.2, "mdd_250": -31.7, "vol_250": 51.3, "pos_52w": 68.3}, "S": {"duration": 87, "pricing": 65, "hard": 14, "bondness": 9}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 81.5 倍,估值里约 94% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 8%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(26 篇研报)前瞻 PE 63.6 倍,次年 44.4 倍,PEG 1.48。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 41.1%),硬资产占比 8%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.4%(经营现金流/市值 2.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 41.1%,稳定度 96%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 7.1 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 8%,资本开支/折旧 5.52 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 81.5 倍 粗算,约 94%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 68%,最大回撤 -32%,年化波动 51%,现价在 52 周高点的 68%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -15% / 0% / 40%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「半导体」186 家中位:PE 81.5 / 股息率 0.3% / 毛利率 35.0% / 固定资产占比 11% / 分红率 32%。", "北方华创:PE 与行业中位持平;股息率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 6.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 2.9个百分点。"]}}