{"F": {"ts_code": "002364.SZ", "name": "中恒电气", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "其他电源设备Ⅱ", "sw3": "其他电源设备Ⅲ", "ind": "其他电源设备Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20100305", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 37.44, "pe_ttm": 157.6031, "pb": 8.5263, "dv_ttm": 0.2662, "total_mv": 2109986.9856, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [29.4, 26.3, 21.2, 26.3, 26.2, 24.8], "rev_series": [14.3, 18.2, 16.1, 15.6, 19.6, 21.4], "np_series": [0.9, 0.9, -0.6, 0.4, 1.1, 1.3], "roe_series": [3.9, 3.9, -2.4, 1.7, 4.6, 5.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 25.1, "np_ttm": 1.3, "ocf_ttm": 0.3, "fcf_ttm": -0.0, "fcf_yield": -0.0, "ocf_yield": 0.1, "gm_median": 26.2, "gm_std": 1.9, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": -8.2, "npm_median": 4.6, "roe_median": 3.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 7.2, "fix_assets": 3.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.3, "pb_calc": 8.53, "capex_dep": 0.95, "interest_debt": 4.2, "debt_ebitda": 2.5, "debt_ratio": 48.0, "debt_mv": 2.0, "payout": 50.0, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 9.9, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 41.7, "np_yoy": 15.8, "np_vol": 125.7, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 97.0, "earn_yield": 0.6, "consensus_n": 5, "fwd_pe": 86.1, "fwd_pe2": 55.7, "fwd_g1": 83.0, "fwd_g2": 54.0, "peg": 1.59, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 47.0], ["数据中心电源", 30.0], ["电力操作电源系统", 7.0], ["通信电源系统", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 148.7, "ret_prev2_year": 42.1, "ret_ytd": 42.1, "ret_pivot": 531.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -6.6, "ret_60": -23.4, "ret_120": 14.3, "ret_250": 60.3, "mdd_250": -42.2, "vol_250": 76.2, "pos_52w": 63.4}, "S": {"duration": 98, "pricing": 49, "hard": 12, "bondness": 37}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 157.6 倍,估值里约 97% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 7%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(5 篇研报)前瞻 PE 86.1 倍,次年 55.7 倍,PEG 1.59。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 7%,毛利率近 5 年中位 26.2%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.0%(经营现金流/市值 0.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 26.2%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -8.2 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 7%,资本开支/折旧 0.95 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 157.6 倍 粗算,约 97%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 60%,最大回撤 -42%,年化波动 76%,现价在 52 周高点的 63%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -7% / -23% / 14%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「其他电源设备Ⅱ」33 家中位:PE 69.0 / 股息率 0.6% / 毛利率 25.3% / 固定资产占比 16% / 分红率 34%。", "中恒电气:PE 比行业中位高 88.6倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 0.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 8.9个百分点。"]}}