{"F": {"ts_code": "002363.SZ", "name": "隆基机械", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "汽车零部件", "sw3": "底盘与发动机系统", "ind": "汽车零部件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20100305", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 6.91, "pe_ttm": 36.9407, "pb": 1.3259, "dv_ttm": 1.16, "total_mv": 287525.3073, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [10.1, 9.3, 7.0, 8.8, 9.3, 10.1], "rev_series": [16.0, 19.6, 22.7, 22.3, 23.8, 20.4], "np_series": [0.5, 0.3, 0.5, 0.4, 0.5, 0.7], "roe_series": [2.1, 1.4, 2.1, 1.7, 2.2, 3.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 19.2, "np_ttm": 0.8, "ocf_ttm": 2.4, "fcf_ttm": 1.4, "fcf_yield": 5.0, "ocf_yield": 8.4, "gm_median": 9.3, "gm_std": 1.0, "gm_stab": 0.89, "gm_chg_2022": -3.1, "npm_median": 1.7, "roe_median": 2.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 31.3, "fix_assets": 9.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.2, "pb_calc": 1.33, "capex_dep": 0.75, "interest_debt": 0.4, "debt_ebitda": 0.2, "debt_ratio": 26.3, "debt_mv": 1.5, "payout": 88.9, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -3.6, "np_cagr3": 13.7, "rev_yoy": -11.1, "np_yoy": 34.5, "np_vol": 32.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 86.0, "earn_yield": 2.7, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["制动盘", 43.0], ["载重车制动毂", 6.0], ["普通制动毂", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 55.8, "ret_prev2_year": -18.6, "ret_ytd": -31.0, "ret_pivot": 23.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 8.5, "ret_60": 4.7, "ret_120": -21.6, "ret_250": -17.0, "mdd_250": -48.8, "vol_250": 42.0, "pos_52w": 61.4}, "S": {"duration": 60, "pricing": 41, "hard": 50, "bondness": 59}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 31%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 9.3%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.1 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 0.2 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 31%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 9.3%,稳定度 89%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 5.0%(经营现金流/市值 8.4%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 9.3%,稳定度 89%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.1 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 31%,资本开支/折旧 0.75 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 36.9 倍 粗算,约 86%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -17%,最大回撤 -49%,年化波动 42%,现价在 52 周高点的 61%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 8% / 5% / -22%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「汽车零部件」274 家中位:PE 30.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 21.4% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 35%。", "隆基机械:PE 比行业中位高 6.7倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 12.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 5.8个百分点。"]}}