{"F": {"ts_code": "002361.SZ", "name": "神剑股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "塑料", "sw3": "合成树脂", "ind": "塑料", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20100303", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 10.6, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 4.6557, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 1008097.1, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [17.8, 15.0, 12.1, 12.5, 14.4, 13.4], "rev_series": [18.7, 25.9, 25.2, 25.7, 24.2, 24.2], "np_series": [0.8, 0.8, 0.3, 0.3, 0.3, 0.1], "roe_series": [4.7, 4.0, 1.1, 1.1, 1.5, 0.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 24.2, "np_ttm": -0.4, "ocf_ttm": 2.2, "fcf_ttm": 1.9, "fcf_yield": 1.9, "ocf_yield": 2.2, "gm_median": 13.4, "gm_std": 1.1, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": -5.7, "npm_median": 0.8, "roe_median": 1.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 26.4, "fix_assets": 12.8, "goodwill_ratio": 5.4, "pb_calc": 4.66, "capex_dep": 0.23, "interest_debt": 16.6, "debt_ebitda": 13.3, "debt_ratio": 55.3, "debt_mv": 16.5, "payout": 257.9, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -1.3, "np_cagr3": -20.9, "rev_yoy": 0.2, "np_yoy": -232.2, "np_vol": 38.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["户外型聚酯树脂", 41.0], ["户外型树脂", 41.0], ["混和型聚酯树脂", 7.0], ["混合型树脂", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": 165.6, "ret_prev2_year": 42.9, "ret_ytd": -26.1, "ret_pivot": 258.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -11.4, "ret_60": -39.3, "ret_120": -16.2, "ret_250": 49.3, "mdd_250": -62.8, "vol_250": 78.1, "pos_52w": 44.8}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 43, "hard": 42, "bondness": 70}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.4 亿,近 5 年亏损 0 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 55%,有息负债 17 亿,经营现金流/市值 2.2%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 26%,毛利率近 5 年中位 13.4%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.9%(经营现金流/市值 2.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 13.4%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.7 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 26%,资本开支/折旧 0.23 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 49%,最大回撤 -63%,年化波动 78%,现价在 52 周高点的 45%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -11% / -39% / -16%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「塑料」77 家中位:PE 41.1 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 16.9% / 固定资产占比 32% / 分红率 40%。", "神剑股份:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 3.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 5.5个百分点。"]}}