{"F": {"ts_code": "002360.SZ", "name": "ST同德", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学制品", "sw3": "民爆制品", "ind": "化学制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20100303", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 5.72, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 2.6002, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 229814.8424, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [41.4, 39.4, 39.9, 40.3, 34.3, 36.7], "rev_series": [9.6, 8.5, 10.9, 9.6, 5.4, 4.7], "np_series": [1.5, 1.2, 1.9, 4.4, -0.7, -10.9], "roe_series": [12.7, 8.9, 12.1, 23.0, -3.4, -74.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 4.0, "np_ttm": -11.5, "ocf_ttm": 1.8, "fcf_ttm": 1.6, "fcf_yield": 7.1, "ocf_yield": 7.6, "gm_median": 39.4, "gm_std": 2.3, "gm_stab": 0.94, "gm_chg_2022": -1.5, "npm_median": 14.3, "roe_median": 8.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 73.7, "fix_assets": 25.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.5, "pb_calc": 2.6, "capex_dep": 0.29, "interest_debt": 13.9, "debt_ebitda": 26.0, "debt_ratio": 74.6, "debt_mv": 60.6, "payout": 17.1, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": -24.3, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -28.0, "np_yoy": -537.0, "np_vol": 597.7, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["工程爆破", 44.0], ["工业炸药", 3.0], ["其他民爆器材", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": -1.6, "ret_prev2_year": -30.8, "ret_ytd": 18.2, "ret_pivot": 36.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 8.5, "ret_60": 6.1, "ret_120": -14.5, "ret_250": 5.1, "mdd_250": -35.3, "vol_250": 42.7, "pos_52w": 82.7}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 59, "hard": 100, "bondness": 41}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -11.5 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 75%,有息负债 14 亿,经营现金流/市值 7.6%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "硬资产占比 74%、毛利率 39.4% 两条都占,但所在行业(基础化工)不在硬资产名单里(医药/科技的固定资产是产能不是储量),按主标签看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 7.1%(经营现金流/市值 7.6%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 39.4%,稳定度 94%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.5 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 74%,资本开支/折旧 0.29 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 5%,最大回撤 -35%,年化波动 43%,现价在 52 周高点的 83%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 8% / 6% / -14%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学制品」188 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 22.3% / 固定资产占比 34% / 分红率 41%。", "ST同德:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 17.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 39.2个百分点。"]}}