{"F": {"ts_code": "002357.SZ", "name": "富临运业", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "交通运输", "sw2": "铁路公路", "sw3": "公交", "ind": "铁路公路", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20100210", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 11.3, "pe_ttm": 9.5088, "pb": 1.7526, "dv_ttm": 0.4425, "total_mv": 354242.683, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [20.4, 19.6, 15.8, 19.3, 18.5, 19.0], "rev_series": [6.3, 7.0, 7.3, 8.6, 8.6, 8.2], "np_series": [0.8, 0.7, 0.6, 1.5, 1.2, 1.7], "roe_series": [6.4, 5.4, 4.5, 10.9, 8.0, 10.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 8.2, "np_ttm": 3.7, "ocf_ttm": 1.4, "fcf_ttm": -0.2, "fcf_yield": -0.4, "ocf_yield": 3.8, "gm_median": 19.0, "gm_std": 1.4, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": -4.6, "npm_median": 15.0, "roe_median": 8.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 21.0, "fix_assets": 5.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.1, "pb_calc": 1.75, "capex_dep": 1.29, "interest_debt": 1.6, "debt_ebitda": 1.0, "debt_ratio": 24.5, "debt_mv": 4.5, "payout": 10.4, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 3.8, "np_cagr3": 42.6, "rev_yoy": -0.1, "np_yoy": 174.8, "np_vol": 65.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 47.0, "earn_yield": 10.5, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 12.8, "fwd_pe2": 15.6, "fwd_g1": -26.0, "fwd_g2": -18.0, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 46.0], ["客运收入", 35.0], ["其他主营业务", 4.0], ["其他", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": 53.5, "ret_prev2_year": -5.4, "ret_ytd": 5.9, "ret_pivot": 129.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 27.1, "ret_60": 21.1, "ret_120": -28.0, "ret_250": 1.7, "mdd_250": -49.6, "vol_250": 50.6, "pos_52w": 69.9}, "S": {"duration": 21, "pricing": 46, "hard": 34, "bondness": 25}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 9.5 倍、股息率 0.4%、毛利率近 5 年中位 19.0%、固定资产占比 21%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.0 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 21%,毛利率近 5 年中位 19.0%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.4%(经营现金流/市值 3.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 19.0%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.6 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 21%,资本开支/折旧 1.29 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 9.5 倍 粗算,约 47%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 2%,最大回撤 -50%,年化波动 51%,现价在 52 周高点的 70%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 27% / 21% / -28%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「铁路公路」33 家中位:PE 15.4 / 股息率 3.2% / 毛利率 32.2% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 48%。", "富临运业:PE 比行业中位低 5.9倍;股息率 比行业中位低 2.8个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 13.2个百分点;固定资产占比 与行业中位持平。"]}}