{"F": {"ts_code": "002355.SZ", "name": "兴民智通", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "汽车零部件", "sw3": "轮胎轮毂", "ind": "汽车零部件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20100209", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 4.95, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 4.1361, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 330898.1445, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [3.7, 3.2, -8.2, 3.9, 1.5, 16.9], "rev_series": [14.7, 14.2, 8.2, 8.1, 7.8, 9.1], "np_series": [-3.5, -5.5, -5.2, -3.3, 1.8, -3.2], "roe_series": [-13.5, -25.1, -31.6, -27.0, 15.4, -29.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 9.5, "np_ttm": -3.4, "ocf_ttm": -0.9, "fcf_ttm": -1.0, "fcf_yield": -3.0, "ocf_yield": -2.7, "gm_median": 3.2, "gm_std": 8.0, "gm_stab": -1.5, "gm_chg_2022": -11.9, "npm_median": -39.3, "roe_median": -27.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 20.9, "fix_assets": 4.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.14, "capex_dep": 0.17, "interest_debt": 3.8, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 64.9, "debt_mv": 11.6, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 3.6, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 8.4, "np_yoy": -8.0, "np_vol": 143.8, "loss_years": 4, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["钢制车轮", 62.0], ["边角料、项目开发费等其他收入", 13.0], ["边角料", 8.0], ["智驾设计及服务", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": -4.9, "ret_prev2_year": 17.7, "ret_ytd": -18.3, "ret_pivot": 6.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 5.1, "ret_60": 4.7, "ret_120": -33.1, "ret_250": -25.5, "mdd_250": -46.6, "vol_250": 43.9, "pos_52w": 65.6}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 5, "hard": 33, "bondness": 19}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -3.4 亿,近 5 年亏损 4 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 65%,有息负债 4 亿,经营现金流/市值 -2.7%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 21%,毛利率近 5 年中位 3.2%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -3.0%(经营现金流/市值 -2.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 3.2%,稳定度 -150%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -11.9 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 21%,资本开支/折旧 0.17 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -26%,最大回撤 -47%,年化波动 44%,现价在 52 周高点的 66%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 5% / 5% / -33%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「汽车零部件」274 家中位:PE 30.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 21.4% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 35%。", "兴民智通:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 18.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 4.6个百分点。"]}}