{"F": {"ts_code": "002354.SZ", "name": "天娱数科", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "传媒", "sw2": "广告营销", "sw3": "营销代理", "ind": "广告营销", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20100209", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 8.45, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 8.0985, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 1398125.001, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [40.4, 19.2, 16.7, 22.0, 22.9, 25.3], "rev_series": [10.0, 17.6, 17.4, 17.6, 15.8, 20.8], "np_series": [1.5, 0.4, -2.8, -10.9, -1.2, -0.5], "roe_series": [8.6, 1.6, -11.2, -56.4, -8.7, -4.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 21.8, "np_ttm": -0.3, "ocf_ttm": 1.2, "fcf_ttm": 0.9, "fcf_yield": 0.6, "ocf_yield": 0.8, "gm_median": 22.0, "gm_std": 3.0, "gm_stab": 0.86, "gm_chg_2022": -23.7, "npm_median": -7.0, "roe_median": -8.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 2.6, "fix_assets": 0.6, "goodwill_ratio": 21.1, "pb_calc": 8.1, "capex_dep": 2.08, "interest_debt": 1.3, "debt_ebitda": 1.9, "debt_ratio": 25.7, "debt_mv": 0.9, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 6.0, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 10.8, "np_yoy": 72.4, "np_vol": 313.0, "loss_years": 4, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 5, "fwd_pe": 150.9, "fwd_pe2": 128.0, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": 18.0, "peg": 8.38, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["数据流量业务", 99.0], ["数字竞技平台", 1.0], ["其他主营业务", 0.0], ["其他", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 18.6, "ret_prev2_year": -2.7, "ret_ytd": 32.7, "ret_pivot": 218.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 5.2, "ret_60": 5.9, "ret_120": 38.3, "ret_250": 2.4, "mdd_250": -42.7, "vol_250": 64.7, "pos_52w": 81.7}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 45, "hard": 4, "bondness": 20}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "商誉占比高", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.3 亿,近 5 年亏损 4 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 26%,有息负债 1 亿,经营现金流/市值 0.8%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 3%,毛利率近 5 年中位 22.0%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.6%(经营现金流/市值 0.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 22.0%,稳定度 86%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -23.7 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 3%,资本开支/折旧 2.08 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 2%,最大回撤 -43%,年化波动 65%,现价在 52 周高点的 82%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 5% / 6% / 38%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「广告营销」28 家中位:PE 98.3 / 股息率 0.2% / 毛利率 14.7% / 固定资产占比 3% / 分红率 32%。", "天娱数科:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 7.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点。"]}}