{"F": {"ts_code": "002353.SZ", "name": "杰瑞股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "专用设备", "sw3": "能源及重型设备", "ind": "专用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20100205", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 125.42, "pe_ttm": 48.7293, "pb": 5.5149, "dv_ttm": 0.6754, "total_mv": 12841200.6978, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [37.9, 34.9, 33.2, 33.0, 33.7, 31.7], "rev_series": [82.9, 87.8, 114.1, 139.1, 133.5, 162.2], "np_series": [16.9, 15.9, 22.4, 24.5, 26.3, 26.8], "roe_series": [16.2, 13.5, 15.1, 13.4, 13.0, 12.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 169.7, "np_ttm": 26.4, "ocf_ttm": 14.9, "fcf_ttm": 5.6, "fcf_yield": 0.4, "ocf_yield": 1.2, "gm_median": 33.2, "gm_std": 1.0, "gm_stab": 0.97, "gm_chg_2022": -4.7, "npm_median": 18.4, "roe_median": 13.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 12.3, "fix_assets": 48.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.3, "pb_calc": 5.51, "capex_dep": 1.02, "interest_debt": 45.5, "debt_ebitda": 1.1, "debt_ratio": 38.9, "debt_mv": 3.5, "payout": 31.3, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 12.5, "np_cagr3": 6.1, "rev_yoy": 10.8, "np_yoy": -3.6, "np_vol": 16.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 90.0, "earn_yield": 2.1, "consensus_n": 26, "fwd_pe": 35.7, "fwd_pe2": 18.1, "fwd_g1": 37.0, "fwd_g2": 97.0, "peg": 0.37, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["高端装备制造", 51.0], ["油气工程及技术服务", 30.0], ["新能源及再生循环", 7.0], ["新能源、再生循环", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": 97.8, "ret_prev2_year": 36.6, "ret_ytd": 78.8, "ret_pivot": 364.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -13.6, "ret_60": -13.5, "ret_120": 20.0, "ret_250": 166.6, "mdd_250": -33.9, "vol_250": 68.4, "pos_52w": 72.2}, "S": {"duration": 70, "pricing": 55, "hard": 20, "bondness": 26}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 48.7 倍、股息率 0.7%、毛利率近 5 年中位 33.2%、固定资产占比 12%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.1 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 33.2%),硬资产占比 12%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.4%(经营现金流/市值 1.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 33.2%,稳定度 97%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.7 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 12%,资本开支/折旧 1.02 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 48.7 倍 粗算,约 90%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 167%,最大回撤 -34%,年化波动 68%,现价在 52 周高点的 72%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -14% / -14% / 20%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「专用设备」205 家中位:PE 42.3 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 26.3% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 44%。", "杰瑞股份:PE 比行业中位高 6.4倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 6.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 5.7个百分点。"]}}