{"F": {"ts_code": "002352.SZ", "name": "顺丰控股", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "交通运输", "sw2": "物流", "sw3": "快递", "ind": "物流", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20100205", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 32.22, "pe_ttm": 15.5906, "pb": 1.6511, "dv_ttm": 2.7292, "total_mv": 16964822.6982, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [16.4, 12.4, 12.5, 12.8, 13.9, 13.3], "rev_series": [1539.9, 2071.9, 2674.9, 2584.1, 2844.2, 3082.3], "np_series": [73.3, 42.7, 61.7, 82.3, 101.7, 111.2], "roe_series": [14.8, 6.1, 7.3, 9.2, 11.0, 11.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 3168.7, "np_ttm": 108.8, "ocf_ttm": 257.9, "fcf_ttm": 143.4, "fcf_yield": 8.5, "ocf_yield": 15.2, "gm_median": 12.8, "gm_std": 0.6, "gm_stab": 0.96, "gm_chg_2022": -3.9, "npm_median": 3.1, "roe_median": 9.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 24.4, "fix_assets": 559.5, "goodwill_ratio": 4.1, "pb_calc": 1.65, "capex_dep": 1.4, "interest_debt": 552.5, "debt_ebitda": 1.7, "debt_ratio": 50.1, "debt_mv": 32.6, "payout": 39.9, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 4.8, "np_cagr3": 21.7, "rev_yoy": 5.9, "np_yoy": -4.1, "np_vol": 30.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 68.0, "earn_yield": 6.4, "consensus_n": 22, "fwd_pe": 13.9, "fwd_pe2": 12.2, "fwd_g1": 12.0, "fwd_g2": 13.0, "peg": 1.07, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 25.0], ["速运及大件业务分部", 17.0], ["速运及大件业务分部：时效快递", 10.0], ["国内时效产品", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": -2.8, "ret_prev2_year": 5.1, "ret_ytd": -15.0, "ret_pivot": -7.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -3.2, "ret_60": -6.1, "ret_120": -14.4, "ret_250": -32.1, "mdd_250": -35.9, "vol_250": 20.8, "pos_52w": 67.0}, "S": {"duration": 32, "pricing": 45, "hard": 39, "bondness": 51}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 15.6 倍、股息率 2.7%、毛利率近 5 年中位 12.8%、固定资产占比 24%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.7 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 24%,毛利率近 5 年中位 12.8%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 8.5%(经营现金流/市值 15.2%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 12.8%,稳定度 96%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.9 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 24%,资本开支/折旧 1.40 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 15.6 倍 粗算,约 68%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -32%,最大回撤 -36%,年化波动 21%,现价在 52 周高点的 67%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -3% / -6% / -14%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「物流」48 家中位:PE 21.4 / 股息率 2.1% / 毛利率 10.3% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 43%。", "顺丰控股:PE 比行业中位低 5.8倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 2.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 6.8个百分点。"]}}