{"F": {"ts_code": "002351.SZ", "name": "漫步者", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "消费电子", "sw3": "品牌消费电子", "ind": "消费电子", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20100205", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 10.14, "pe_ttm": 20.3937, "pb": 3.0078, "dv_ttm": 1.9611, "total_mv": 901554.498, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [33.2, 32.4, 33.0, 38.2, 40.4, 40.6], "rev_series": [19.3, 23.0, 22.1, 26.9, 29.4, 28.0], "np_series": [2.8, 3.2, 2.5, 4.2, 4.5, 4.3], "roe_series": [14.1, 14.9, 11.0, 17.3, 16.9, 14.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 27.1, "np_ttm": 4.4, "ocf_ttm": 4.2, "fcf_ttm": 4.1, "fcf_yield": 4.6, "ocf_yield": 4.7, "gm_median": 38.2, "gm_std": 3.5, "gm_stab": 0.91, "gm_chg_2022": -0.2, "npm_median": 16.6, "roe_median": 14.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 9.6, "fix_assets": 3.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.1, "pb_calc": 3.01, "capex_dep": 0.32, "interest_debt": 0.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 15.4, "debt_mv": 0.1, "payout": 42.6, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 8.1, "np_cagr3": 20.5, "rev_yoy": -6.3, "np_yoy": 5.5, "np_vol": 31.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 75.0, "earn_yield": 4.9, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 19.0, "fwd_pe2": 17.5, "fwd_g1": 8.0, "fwd_g2": 8.0, "peg": 2.38, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["耳机", 34.0], ["音响设备", 30.0], ["音响", 30.0], ["其他主营业务", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": -26.1, "ret_prev2_year": -5.7, "ret_ytd": -14.5, "ret_pivot": 10.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -0.2, "ret_60": 3.2, "ret_120": -11.7, "ret_250": -27.6, "mdd_250": -36.5, "vol_250": 27.2, "pos_52w": 71.0}, "S": {"duration": 40, "pricing": 58, "hard": 15, "bondness": 39}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 20.4 倍、股息率 2.0%、毛利率近 5 年中位 38.2%、固定资产占比 10%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.0 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 38.2%),硬资产占比 10%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 4.6%(经营现金流/市值 4.7%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 38.2%,稳定度 91%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.2 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 10%,资本开支/折旧 0.32 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 20.4 倍 粗算,约 75%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -28%,最大回撤 -36%,年化波动 27%,现价在 52 周高点的 71%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -0% / 3% / -12%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「消费电子」100 家中位:PE 46.5 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 20.3% / 固定资产占比 25% / 分红率 44%。", "漫步者:PE 比行业中位低 26.1倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 17.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 15.2个百分点。"]}}