{"F": {"ts_code": "002348.SZ", "name": "高乐股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "轻工制造", "sw2": "文娱用品", "sw3": "娱乐用品", "ind": "文娱用品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20100203", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 10.84, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 28.1908, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 1076562.8928, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [23.0, 20.9, 24.4, 24.7, 23.3, 21.5], "rev_series": [5.1, 4.4, 3.2, 2.7, 3.2, 3.2], "np_series": [-1.9, -1.1, -0.8, -0.6, -0.6, -0.4], "roe_series": [-22.2, -15.3, -13.6, -11.4, -11.8, -9.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 3.6, "np_ttm": -0.4, "ocf_ttm": -0.4, "fcf_ttm": -0.5, "fcf_yield": -0.5, "ocf_yield": -0.4, "gm_median": 23.3, "gm_std": 1.5, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": 1.3, "npm_median": -23.3, "roe_median": -11.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 46.7, "fix_assets": 4.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 28.19, "capex_dep": 0.41, "interest_debt": 1.6, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 57.8, "debt_mv": 1.5, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 0.5, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 25.3, "np_yoy": -3.9, "np_vol": 11.3, "loss_years": 5, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["IP玩具", 36.0], ["IP产品", 36.0], ["定制礼赠品", 16.0], ["传统玩具", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": 93.6, "ret_prev2_year": -22.9, "ret_ytd": 88.5, "ret_pivot": 371.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -10.9, "ret_60": -8.9, "ret_120": 24.5, "ret_250": 186.8, "mdd_250": -41.4, "vol_250": 62.9, "pos_52w": 70.5}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 53, "hard": 75, "bondness": 22}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.4 亿,近 5 年亏损 5 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 58%,有息负债 2 亿,经营现金流/市值 -0.4%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 47%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 23.3%,稳定度 93%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.5%(经营现金流/市值 -0.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 23.3%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.3 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 47%,资本开支/折旧 0.41 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 187%,最大回撤 -41%,年化波动 63%,现价在 52 周高点的 70%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -11% / -9% / 24%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「文娱用品」20 家中位:PE 47.5 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 23.8% / 固定资产占比 22% / 分红率 40%。", "高乐股份:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 0.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 24.2个百分点。"]}}