{"F": {"ts_code": "002345.SZ", "name": "潮宏基", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "纺织服饰", "sw2": "饰品", "sw3": "钟表珠宝", "ind": "饰品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20100128", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 9.67, "pe_ttm": 14.6165, "pb": 2.2141, "dv_ttm": 4.6536, "total_mv": 859191.7809, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [35.8, 33.4, 30.2, 26.1, 23.6, 22.1], "rev_series": [32.2, 46.4, 44.2, 59.0, 65.2, 93.2], "np_series": [1.4, 3.5, 2.0, 3.3, 1.9, 5.0], "roe_series": [4.1, 10.1, 5.6, 9.3, 5.4, 13.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 95.9, "np_ttm": 5.9, "ocf_ttm": 8.3, "fcf_ttm": 7.6, "fcf_yield": 8.8, "ocf_yield": 9.7, "gm_median": 26.1, "gm_std": 4.2, "gm_stab": 0.84, "gm_chg_2022": -5.7, "npm_median": 5.1, "roe_median": 9.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 9.9, "fix_assets": 6.2, "goodwill_ratio": 5.4, "pb_calc": 2.21, "capex_dep": 1.54, "interest_debt": 16.2, "debt_ebitda": 1.4, "debt_ratio": 37.7, "debt_mv": 18.8, "payout": 80.4, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 28.2, "np_cagr3": 35.6, "rev_yoy": 6.6, "np_yoy": 27.4, "np_vol": 88.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 66.0, "earn_yield": 6.8, "consensus_n": 29, "fwd_pe": 11.5, "fwd_pe2": 9.7, "fwd_g1": 27.0, "fwd_g2": 18.0, "peg": 0.64, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 48.0], ["时尚珠宝产品", 26.0], ["传统黄金产品", 19.0], ["提供加盟及其他服务", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 137.8, "ret_prev2_year": -11.3, "ret_ytd": -20.4, "ret_pivot": 171.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -8.7, "ret_60": 9.0, "ret_120": -2.8, "ret_250": -34.8, "mdd_250": -46.7, "vol_250": 52.6, "pos_52w": 60.2}, "S": {"duration": 31, "pricing": 46, "hard": 16, "bondness": 60}, "label": "成长兑现", "tags": ["现金流红利", "股息率≥4%", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["盈利在追估值:最新净利润同比 27%,PE TTM 14.6 倍 但前瞻 PE 11.5 倍,PEG 0.64。", "自由现金流 7.6 亿(正),次年预期增速 18%(29 篇研报),风险在增速假设能否延续。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 10%,毛利率近 5 年中位 26.1%。", "加息期怎么走": "估值不靠远期故事,加息期比纯久期抗跌;风险在订单与增速,盯业绩不盯利率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 8.8%(经营现金流/市值 9.7%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 26.1%,稳定度 84%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.7 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 10%,资本开支/折旧 1.54 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 14.6 倍 粗算,约 66%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -35%,最大回撤 -47%,年化波动 53%,现价在 52 周高点的 60%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -9% / 9% / -3%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「饰品」15 家中位:PE 57.4 / 股息率 2.0% / 毛利率 15.0% / 固定资产占比 3% / 分红率 59%。", "潮宏基:PE 比行业中位低 42.8倍;股息率 比行业中位高 2.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 11.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 7.3个百分点。"]}}