{"F": {"ts_code": "002342.SZ", "name": "巨力索具", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "通用设备", "sw3": "金属制品", "ind": "通用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20100126", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 7.85, "pe_ttm": 634.0429, "pb": 3.0875, "dv_ttm": 0.0764, "total_mv": 753600.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [19.6, 17.4, 17.7, 21.2, 20.4, 18.4], "rev_series": [22.1, 24.7, 21.7, 23.3, 22.1, 25.7], "np_series": [0.3, 0.2, 0.1, -0.1, -0.5, 0.2], "roe_series": [1.4, 1.0, 0.4, -0.4, -1.9, 0.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 27.4, "np_ttm": 0.1, "ocf_ttm": 0.6, "fcf_ttm": -0.8, "fcf_yield": -1.0, "ocf_yield": 0.7, "gm_median": 18.4, "gm_std": 1.5, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": -1.9, "npm_median": 0.4, "roe_median": 0.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 32.4, "fix_assets": 17.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.09, "capex_dep": 1.05, "interest_debt": 14.2, "debt_ebitda": 6.0, "debt_ratio": 55.2, "debt_mv": 18.9, "payout": 33.0, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 5.8, "np_cagr3": 24.3, "rev_yoy": 14.8, "np_yoy": -59.4, "np_vol": 164.9, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 99.0, "earn_yield": 0.2, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["工程及金属索具", 51.0], ["钢丝绳及钢丝绳索具", 27.0], ["合成纤维吊装带索具", 12.0], ["原材料及劳务", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": 185.2, "ret_prev2_year": -25.0, "ret_ytd": -14.6, "ret_pivot": 165.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -5.4, "ret_60": -21.3, "ret_120": -40.6, "ret_250": -10.4, "mdd_250": -69.0, "vol_250": 75.0, "pos_52w": 35.4}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 47, "hard": 52, "bondness": 41}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 32%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 18.4%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.9 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 6.0 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 32%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 18.4%,稳定度 92%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.0%(经营现金流/市值 0.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 18.4%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.9 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 32%,资本开支/折旧 1.05 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 634.0 倍 粗算,约 99%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -10%,最大回撤 -69%,年化波动 75%,现价在 52 周高点的 35%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -5% / -21% / -41%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通用设备」248 家中位:PE 50.6 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 28.5% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 45%。", "巨力索具:PE 比行业中位高 583.4倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 10.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 11.6个百分点。"]}}