{"F": {"ts_code": "002340.SZ", "name": "格林美", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "电池", "sw3": "电池化学品", "ind": "电池", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20100122", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 6.46, "pe_ttm": 17.7451, "pb": 1.5228, "dv_ttm": 1.4668, "total_mv": 3296124.3662, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [16.7, 17.2, 14.5, 12.2, 15.3, 14.7], "rev_series": [124.7, 193.0, 293.9, 305.3, 332.0, 371.2], "np_series": [4.1, 9.2, 13.0, 9.3, 10.2, 15.8], "roe_series": [3.5, 6.7, 7.9, 5.0, 5.3, 7.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 375.5, "np_ttm": 18.6, "ocf_ttm": 29.4, "fcf_ttm": -15.6, "fcf_yield": -4.7, "ocf_yield": 8.9, "gm_median": 14.7, "gm_std": 1.6, "gm_stab": 0.89, "gm_chg_2022": -2.1, "npm_median": 4.5, "roe_median": 6.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 47.9, "fix_assets": 351.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.1, "pb_calc": 1.52, "capex_dep": 1.65, "interest_debt": 313.1, "debt_ebitda": 5.2, "debt_ratio": 65.9, "debt_mv": 95.0, "payout": 33.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 8.1, "np_cagr3": 6.8, "rev_yoy": 2.4, "np_yoy": 34.7, "np_vol": 50.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 72.0, "earn_yield": 5.6, "consensus_n": 4, "fwd_pe": 16.4, "fwd_pe2": 11.5, "fwd_g1": 8.0, "fwd_g2": 43.0, "peg": 0.38, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["三元前驱体", 13.0], ["镍资源(MHP、镍板)", 9.0], ["钨资源回收利用业务(APT、碳化钨粉等)", 8.0]], "ret_prev_year": 29.8, "ret_prev2_year": 22.0, "ret_ytd": -21.8, "ret_pivot": 18.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -5.6, "ret_60": -8.2, "ret_120": -26.7, "ret_250": -6.8, "mdd_250": -35.9, "vol_250": 42.0, "pos_52w": 65.7}, "S": {"duration": 36, "pricing": 44, "hard": 77, "bondness": 47}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 48%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 14.7%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.1 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 5.2 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 48%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 14.7%,稳定度 89%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -4.7%(经营现金流/市值 8.9%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 14.7%,稳定度 89%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.1 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 48%,资本开支/折旧 1.65 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 17.7 倍 粗算,约 72%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -7%,最大回撤 -36%,年化波动 42%,现价在 52 周高点的 66%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -6% / -8% / -27%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电池」111 家中位:PE 35.8 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 17.8% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 36%。", "格林美:PE 比行业中位低 18.1倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.8个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 3.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 20.1个百分点。"]}}