{"F": {"ts_code": "002334.SZ", "name": "英威腾", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "自动化设备", "sw3": "工控设备", "ind": "自动化设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20100113", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 6.74, "pe_ttm": 56.0842, "pb": 1.8055, "dv_ttm": 0.8913, "total_mv": 552719.4964, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [36.1, 32.7, 30.1, 31.5, 30.2, 31.4], "rev_series": [22.9, 30.1, 41.0, 45.9, 43.2, 44.7], "np_series": [1.4, 1.8, 2.7, 3.7, 2.9, 2.1], "roe_series": [8.3, 10.0, 13.1, 15.1, 10.3, 7.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 46.1, "np_ttm": 1.0, "ocf_ttm": 0.9, "fcf_ttm": -5.1, "fcf_yield": -9.2, "ocf_yield": 1.6, "gm_median": 31.4, "gm_std": 1.0, "gm_stab": 0.97, "gm_chg_2022": -6.0, "npm_median": 5.3, "roe_median": 10.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 33.2, "fix_assets": 20.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.8, "pb_calc": 1.81, "capex_dep": 5.26, "interest_debt": 10.1, "debt_ebitda": 3.7, "debt_ratio": 51.2, "debt_mv": 18.3, "payout": 16.7, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 3.0, "np_cagr3": -8.8, "rev_yoy": 6.9, "np_yoy": -89.3, "np_vol": 32.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 91.0, "earn_yield": 1.8, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 22.5, "fwd_pe2": 19.8, "fwd_g1": 150.0, "fwd_g2": 13.0, "peg": 1.73, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 35.0], ["变频器类", 18.0], ["变频器", 18.0], ["电驱及车载电源类", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": 21.1, "ret_prev2_year": -13.5, "ret_ytd": -24.8, "ret_pivot": 24.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 1.2, "ret_60": -18.4, "ret_120": -31.2, "ret_250": -31.2, "mdd_250": -40.8, "vol_250": 40.1, "pos_52w": 65.9}, "S": {"duration": 75, "pricing": 53, "hard": 53, "bondness": 39}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 21 亿,占总资产 33%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 31.4%,稳定度 97%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.0 个百分点。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 -9.2%,股息率 0.9%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 91%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 33%)和定价权(毛利率 31.4% 且稳定)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -9.2%(经营现金流/市值 1.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 31.4%,稳定度 97%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.0 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 33%,资本开支/折旧 5.26 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 56.1 倍 粗算,约 91%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -31%,最大回撤 -41%,年化波动 40%,现价在 52 周高点的 66%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 1% / -18% / -31%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年没动,若信号亮起弹性在这。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「自动化设备」93 家中位:PE 77.4 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 33.9% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 42%。", "英威腾:PE 比行业中位低 21.3倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 2.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 19.4个百分点。"]}}