{"F": {"ts_code": "002330.SZ", "name": "得利斯", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "食品饮料", "sw2": "食品加工", "sw3": "肉制品", "ind": "食品加工", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20100106", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 4.26, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 1.1794, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 270644.3178, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [6.8, 7.8, 6.9, 5.3, 6.6, 6.0], "rev_series": [32.8, 31.3, 30.7, 30.9, 29.6, 31.5], "np_series": [0.3, 0.4, 0.3, -0.3, -0.3, -0.1], "roe_series": [2.2, 3.2, 1.7, -1.4, -1.4, -0.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 28.7, "np_ttm": -0.1, "ocf_ttm": 0.4, "fcf_ttm": -0.7, "fcf_yield": -2.7, "ocf_yield": 1.4, "gm_median": 6.6, "gm_std": 0.8, "gm_stab": 0.87, "gm_chg_2022": 0.1, "npm_median": -0.3, "roe_median": -0.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 37.6, "fix_assets": 13.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.18, "capex_dep": 1.58, "interest_debt": 6.2, "debt_ebitda": 7.1, "debt_ratio": 38.1, "debt_mv": 22.9, "payout": null, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": 0.8, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -17.0, "np_yoy": -45.4, "np_vol": 98.5, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 35.0], ["冷却肉及冷冻肉", 12.0], ["预制菜类", 10.0], ["牛肉贸易类", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": 10.8, "ret_prev2_year": -21.3, "ret_ytd": -12.0, "ret_pivot": 16.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 11.5, "ret_60": 10.6, "ret_120": -16.5, "ret_250": -15.8, "mdd_250": -37.9, "vol_250": 34.7, "pos_52w": 76.5}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 41, "hard": 60, "bondness": 34}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 38%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 6.6%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.1 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 7.1 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 38%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 6.6%,稳定度 87%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.7%(经营现金流/市值 1.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 6.6%,稳定度 87%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.1 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 38%,资本开支/折旧 1.58 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -16%,最大回撤 -38%,年化波动 35%,现价在 52 周高点的 76%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 12% / 11% / -16%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「食品加工」27 家中位:PE 29.8 / 股息率 2.4% / 毛利率 23.4% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 62%。", "得利斯:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 16.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 9.1个百分点。"]}}