{"F": {"ts_code": "002320.SZ", "name": "海峡股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "交通运输", "sw2": "航运港口", "sw3": "航运", "ind": "航运港口", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20091216", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 7.09, "pe_ttm": 86.8162, "pb": 3.9116, "dv_ttm": 0.5639, "total_mv": 1585915.5187, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [37.5, 40.7, 40.5, 48.7, 43.4, 33.9], "rev_series": [10.7, 14.0, 29.6, 39.3, 42.2, 51.2], "np_series": [2.5, 2.7, 1.5, 4.3, 2.6, 1.7], "roe_series": [6.4, 6.7, 3.8, 10.5, 6.0, 4.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 52.4, "np_ttm": 1.8, "ocf_ttm": 15.4, "fcf_ttm": 10.5, "fcf_yield": 6.6, "ocf_yield": 9.7, "gm_median": 40.7, "gm_std": 4.8, "gm_stab": 0.88, "gm_chg_2022": 3.0, "npm_median": 22.4, "roe_median": 6.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 72.0, "fix_assets": 70.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.91, "capex_dep": 1.09, "interest_debt": 18.7, "debt_ebitda": 0.9, "debt_ratio": 35.7, "debt_mv": 11.8, "payout": 51.6, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 20.0, "np_cagr3": 4.4, "rev_yoy": 4.3, "np_yoy": 7.6, "np_vol": 88.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 94.0, "earn_yield": 1.2, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 49.0], ["海安航线", 37.0], ["渤海湾航线", 6.0], ["港口业务", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": 87.5, "ret_prev2_year": 14.8, "ret_ytd": -41.5, "ret_pivot": 50.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 5.5, "ret_60": 4.7, "ret_120": -24.9, "ret_250": -14.3, "mdd_250": -60.2, "vol_250": 49.1, "pos_52w": 46.2}, "S": {"duration": 89, "pricing": 61, "hard": 100, "bondness": 24}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 86.8 倍、股息率 0.6%、毛利率近 5 年中位 40.7%、固定资产占比 72%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.9 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "硬资产占比 72%、毛利率 40.7% 看起来两条都占,但价格受管制(航运港口:电价/通行费/港口费由主管部门或市场化机制定),高毛利来自成本结构不是提价能力。通胀来了它不能提价,利润跟不上通胀,所以不算。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 6.6%(经营现金流/市值 9.7%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 40.7%,稳定度 88%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 3.0 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 72%,资本开支/折旧 1.09 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 86.8 倍 粗算,约 94%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -14%,最大回撤 -60%,年化波动 49%,现价在 52 周高点的 46%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 6% / 5% / -25%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「航运港口」35 家中位:PE 17.1 / 股息率 1.7% / 毛利率 27.0% / 固定资产占比 47% / 分红率 41%。", "海峡股份:PE 比行业中位高 69.7倍;股息率 比行业中位低 1.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 13.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 24.9个百分点。"]}}