{"F": {"ts_code": "002319.SZ", "name": "乐通股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学制品", "sw3": "涂料油墨", "ind": "化学制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20091211", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 10.62, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 12.3261, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 222459.795, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [24.3, 18.2, 20.0, 24.8, 19.1, 20.6], "rev_series": [3.1, 3.9, 4.0, 3.9, 4.0, 4.1], "np_series": [0.1, -0.4, -0.3, 0.0, -0.2, -0.1], "roe_series": [5.2, -29.9, -35.0, 4.8, -19.2, -5.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 4.4, "np_ttm": -0.0, "ocf_ttm": 0.1, "fcf_ttm": 0.1, "fcf_yield": 0.3, "ocf_yield": 0.4, "gm_median": 20.0, "gm_std": 2.3, "gm_stab": 0.89, "gm_chg_2022": -4.3, "npm_median": -6.2, "roe_median": -19.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 46.1, "fix_assets": 2.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 12.33, "capex_dep": 0.05, "interest_debt": 2.0, "debt_ebitda": 6.0, "debt_ratio": 70.6, "debt_mv": 8.8, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 0.2, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 18.5, "np_yoy": 327.9, "np_vol": 374.9, "loss_years": 4, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["凹印油墨", 49.0], ["特种油墨", 0.0], ["其他主营业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 13.3, "ret_prev2_year": -23.1, "ret_ytd": -11.8, "ret_pivot": 27.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -7.5, "ret_60": -3.5, "ret_120": -19.3, "ret_250": -13.0, "mdd_250": -38.6, "vol_250": 50.7, "pos_52w": 68.3}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 45, "hard": 74, "bondness": 35}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.0 亿,近 5 年亏损 4 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 71%,有息负债 2 亿,经营现金流/市值 0.4%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 46%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 20.0%,稳定度 89%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.3%(经营现金流/市值 0.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 20.0%,稳定度 89%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.3 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 46%,资本开支/折旧 0.05 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -13%,最大回撤 -39%,年化波动 51%,现价在 52 周高点的 68%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -8% / -4% / -19%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学制品」188 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 22.3% / 固定资产占比 34% / 分红率 41%。", "乐通股份:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 2.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 11.6个百分点。"]}}